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Sun irradiance predication method based on full-sky imaging equipment and device thereof

An all-sky imaging and solar irradiance technology, which is applied in prediction, image enhancement, image analysis, etc., can solve the problem of low accuracy of solar irradiance prediction and achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-06-05
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +3
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  • Claims
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] In order to overcome the defects in the above-mentioned prior art that the prediction accuracy of solar irradiance is not high due to the lack of consideration of weather types, rapid changes in clouds, or weather processes, etc., the present invention provides a solar irradiance forecast based on an all-sky imaging device. According to the cloud mass center's motion speed and motion direction, the predicted position of the cloud mass center is firstly determined, and the solar irradiance forecast value based on the cloud track is determined according to the cloud mass center's predicted position, and then determined based on the weather The predicted value of solar irradiance and the measured value of solar irradiance in the forecast mode are finally realized according to the predicted value of solar irradiance based on cloud trajectory, the predicted value of solar irradiance based on the weather forecast model and the measured value of solar irradiance Final prediction of solar irradiance, improving the accuracy of prediction results

Method used

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  • Sun irradiance predication method based on full-sky imaging equipment and device thereof
  • Sun irradiance predication method based on full-sky imaging equipment and device thereof
  • Sun irradiance predication method based on full-sky imaging equipment and device thereof

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Embodiment 1

[0111] Embodiment 1 of the present invention provides a method for predicting solar irradiance based on an all-sky imaging device. The specific flow chart of the method is as follows figure 1 As shown, the specific process is as follows:

[0112] S101: Determine the predicted position of the cloud mass center according to the moving speed and the moving direction of the cloud mass center, and determine the predicted value of solar irradiance based on the cloud track according to the predicted position of the cloud mass center;

[0113] S102: Determine the predicted value of solar irradiance and the measured value of solar irradiance based on the weather forecast model;

[0114] S103: Determine the final predicted value of solar irradiance according to the predicted value of solar irradiance based on cloud trajectory, the predicted value of solar irradiance based on the weather forecast model, and the measured value of solar irradiance.

[0115] In the above-mentioned S101, th...

Embodiment 2

[0206] Using the measured solar irradiance, cloud image information and WRF model prediction results of a photovoltaic power station in Northwest China, the actual effect is as follows: figure 2 shown.

[0207] It can be seen that the predicted irradiance can follow the actual irradiance well on the whole, and can also well represent the influence of clouds. The sudden decrease of solar irradiance at 13:20 is due to the total cloud cover Influenced by large cloud clusters with more thick clouds, after the influence of the cloud clusters disappears, there will be certain fluctuations due to the influence of cloud clusters with little total cloud cover and all thin clouds, and finally still affected by the large total cloud cover and more thick clouds cloud effects until sunset. However, there is a large prediction deviation around 16:50, which may be due to the deviation of the cloud trajectory prediction and the WRF model results, which leads to the deviation of the predicte...

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Abstract

The invention provides a sun irradiance predication method based on full-sky imaging equipment and a device thereof. The method comprises the steps of firstly determining a sun irradiance predicated value based on a cloud cluster track, determining a sun irradiance predicated value based on weather forecasting mode and a sun irradiance actual measured value, and finally realizing final predicationof the sun irradiance. In the sun irradiance predication method based on the full-sky imaging equipment, effect of cloud to the sun irradiance is considered in determining a clear sky irradiance; effect of quick cloud change to the sun irradiance is considered in determining a cloud cluster movement track; and furthermore in a process of determining the sun irradiance predicated value based on the weather forecasting mode, physical processes such as weather process and cloud change are considered; comprehensive consideration is realized and furthermore accuracy of a sun irradiance predicatedresult is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power prediction, in particular to a solar irradiance prediction method and device based on an all-sky imaging device. Background technique [0002] The power of photovoltaic power generation is highly correlated with solar irradiance, which is random and volatile. Large-scale access will affect the security, stability and economic operation of the power grid. Through the more accurate forecasting ability of photovoltaic power generation power, it can effectively reduce the operating cost of the power system, make full use of solar energy resources, and obtain greater economic and social benefits. [0003] Because the power of photovoltaic power generation is closely related to the solar irradiance below the ground, and the solar irradiance is strongly affected by weather factors. Cloud is the main weather factor of solar irradiance, and the process of its occurrence, development and disappe...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06K9/46G06K9/62G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06T7/136
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06T7/136G06T2207/30192G06V10/56G06F18/2411
Inventor 丁煌陈卫东朱凌志王诚良程序王知嘉李登宣朱想吴骥周海崔方周强赵亮施涛黄宗宏常锋宫建锋李谦靳盘龙冯雪齐彩娟党东升
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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