A method for determining probabilistic optimal power flow based on vine copula function

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for determining a probability optimal power flow based on a vine copula function. The method comprises the following steps that the minimum power generation cost serves as a target function, and a probability optimal power flow model containing the multi-wind electric field is built; a single wind power plant wind speed distribution function is established according to the non-parameter nuclear density fitting wind speed; a single wind power plant wind speed distribution function and a vine copula function are utilized, and a multi-wind power plant wind speed combined distribution model is built; M scenarios of loads and wind power and the probability of occurrence of each situation can be determined based on a multi-wind power plant wind speed combined distribution model and by means of a Rosenblat transformation and a three-point estimation method; according to the probability optimal power flow model of the multi-wind power plant, the optimal power flow under the M scenes can be calculated by utilizing an internal point method; the probability optimal power flow is obtained according to the optimal power flow under the m scenarios and the probability of each situation. According to the invention, the diversified correlation structure of the wind speed is effectively described, and the calculation efficiency is high, so that effective information can be provided for the operation of the electric power system in time.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of probabilistic optimal power flow calculation, and more specifically relates to a method for determining the probability optimal power flow based on a vine copula function. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the installed capacity of wind power has grown rapidly, but the consumption of wind power has become the main bottleneck to curb its development. The randomness, volatility, and intermittency of wind power have caused a huge impact on the operation of the power system; in addition, within a certain range of space, there are complex correlations between wind farms. Therefore, in analyzing the optimal power flow problem of a power system with multiple wind farms, the uncertainty and correlation of wind power should be considered comprehensively, and a probabilistic optimal power flow model considering wind speed correlation should be established. [0003] In order to solve the probabilistic optimal po...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] Aiming at the above defects or improvement needs of the prior art, the present invention provides a method for determining the probabilistic optimal power flow based on the vine copula function, thus solving the defects in the prior art when describing the correlation between multiple wind farms, and the computational efficiency Low, and there is no technical problem in solving the probability optimal power flow

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