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41 results about "Vine copula" patented technology

A vine is a graphical tool for labeling constraints in high-dimensional probability distributions. A regular vine is a special case for which all constraints are two-dimensional or conditional two-dimensional. Regular vines generalize trees, and are themselves specializations of Cantor trees. Combined with bivariate copulas, regular vines have proven to be a flexible tool in high-dimensional dependence modeling. Copulas are multivariate distributions with uniform univariate margins. Representing a joint distribution as univariate margins plus copulas allows the separation of the problems of estimating univariate distributions from the problems of estimating dependence. This is handy in as much as univariate distributions in many cases can be adequately estimated from data, whereas dependence information is rough known, involving summary indicators and judgment. Although the number of parametric multivariate copula families with flexible dependence is limited, there are many parametric families of bivariate copulas. Regular vines owe their increasing popularity to the fact that they leverage from bivariate copulas and enable extensions to arbitrary dimensions. Sampling theory and estimation theory for regular vines are well developed and model inference has left the post . Regular vines have proven useful in other problems such as (constrained) sampling of correlation matrices, building non-parametric continuous Bayesian networks.

Cooperative transaction method, system and device for multiple virtual power plants and readable medium

The invention relates to a multi-virtual power plant collaborative transaction method, system and device and a readable medium, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a multi-energy coupling model containing a gas turbine, an energy storage device, biomass power generation and a new energy vehicle, and generating a multi-source data set to quantify the carbon emission cost and charge and discharge constraints; a wind and light output joint probability distribution model is generated based on an F-vine Copula distribution function, and a severe scene set is screened through random sampling and scene closeness evaluation; designing a renewable energy source-load correlation coefficient and a green energy consumption compensation mechanism, and correcting a virtual power plant scheduling objective function; establishing a double-layer dynamic transaction mechanism, and iteratively optimizing an upper-layer dynamic electricity price and a lower-layer multi-source transaction electricity quantity; a multi-stage robust optimization algorithm is adopted to process the uncertainty of wind, light and electric vehicles, and a transaction strategy among multiple virtual power plants in a severe scene is generated, so that the problems of low-carbon excitation deficiency, insufficient multi-source uncertainty coping and the like are solved, and unification of economy, low-carbon property and robustness of collaborative scheduling transaction of the multiple virtual power plants is realized.
Owner:FUZHOU ONE SUN POWER CONSULTING

Water conservancy equipment service life prediction and fault monitoring method

The invention discloses a water conservancy equipment life prediction and fault monitoring method. The method comprises the following steps: multi-modal data acquisition and dynamic preprocessing: constructing an acquisition frequency adaptive model; multi-domain fusion feature extraction and adversarial dimension reduction: multi-domain feature extraction is carried out, then a generator of a Wasserstein GAN architecture is constructed to reconstruct original features, a discriminator calculates a Wasserstein distance, the generator is forced to reconstruct interlayer features of the discriminator through feature matching loss, and high-correlation features are screened in combination with a maximum information coefficient and a Pearson's correlation coefficient; constructing and training a gated attention fusion network; and constructing a fault monitoring model based on a Copula theory: capturing a normal operation mode of equipment, then estimating feature edge distribution through an empirical distribution function corrected by KDE, constructing a D-vine Copula structure to hierarchically capture nonlinear dependency, calculating an AnmallyScore index integrating edge anomaly and correlation sudden change penalty, and triggering an alarm when the AnmallyScore index is greater than a threshold value.
Owner:ZHEJIANG UNIV OF WATER RESOURCES & ELECTRIC POWER

Tunnel defect detection spatial resolution enhancement method and device based on Vine Copula multivariable dependence modeling, computer readable medium and computer program product

The invention belongs to the field of tunnel engineering, and relates to a tunnel defect detection data spatial resolution enhancement method and device based on a Vine Copula dependent structure and a conditional random field, a computer readable medium and a computer program product. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, separating an overall trend and random fluctuation from original tunnel defect monitoring data; then establishing a Vine Copula multivariable dependence model to represent a statistical correlation relationship among the plurality of defect indexes; and then generating defect distribution data with high spatial resolution by using a conditional random field interpolation simulation technology in combination with a spatial autocorrelation analysis result. According to the invention, while the accuracy of the existing measuring point data is ensured, the spatial correlation structure and multivariable joint distribution characteristics of the defect data are maintained, and the precision of spatial interpolation prediction is improved.
Owner:HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH

Flap mechanism dynamic global sensitivity analysis method based on Vine Copula

The invention discloses a dynamic global sensitivity analysis method for a flap mechanism based on Vine Copula. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, performing rigid-flexible coupling simulation on a movement mechanism, identifying a stress dangerous area, a deformation dangerous area and a clamping stagnation dangerous area of the movement mechanism through a stress distribution condition, and providing a new structure failure criterion according to a dynamic multi-parameter coupling idea, namely a time-varying stress-strain-driving force combined criterion; random parameters are definitely input according to the motion characteristics of the flap mechanism; secondly, establishing a time-varying correlation model considering autocorrelation and cross-correlation based on a Vine Copula theory and a random process model, generating a condition sample by using the model, and generating a required input random variable through inverse transformation; dividing the dynamic sample into a plurality of subintervals by using a space division method, and performing Sobol index solving, so as to solve the importance measure of each input parameter in the movement process of the flap mechanism;
Owner:NANJING UNIV OF AERONAUTICS & ASTRONAUTICS

Intelligent flood forecasting method for coupling error correction and joint modeling

The invention discloses an intelligent flood forecasting method for coupling error correction and joint modeling, and relates to a deep learning and uncertainty modeling technology. At the input end, constructing a future random rainfall scene through hourly dynamic normal disturbance; the method comprises the following steps: at a model end, introducing a multi-structure and multi-objective function combination based on Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks and Transform, and forming a multi-member ensemble forecast; at an error end, a probabilistic modeling method based on a numerable asymmetric Laplacian mixed density network is provided, and fine error correction is realized; a Vine copula function is adopted to construct high-dimensional joint distribution, and a Bayesian model averaging and expectation maximization algorithm is combined to realize weighted fusion of multi-member posterior results; according to the method, uncertainty in flood forecasting can be comprehensively described, the stability and adaptability of a forecasting system are improved, and the method is suitable for a basin-level real-time flood ensemble forecasting scene.
Owner:HOHAI UNIV +2

Multi-element source-load coupled distributed wind power access capacity calculation method

The invention discloses a multi-element source-load coupled distributed wind power access capacity calculation method, which belongs to the technical field of power systems, and comprises the following steps: constructing a multi-element source-load probability model, and quantifying the probability distribution of wind power, photovoltaic and flexible loads; a dynamic vine Copula correlation model is constructed, and wind power-photovoltaic-flexible load joint probability distribution is obtained; generating a multi-element source load operation simulation scene set based on wind power-photovoltaic-flexible load joint probability distribution, and reducing simulation scenes; constructing a distributed wind power access capacity optimization model objective function; and solving the objective function by adopting a Benders decomposition algorithm to obtain an optimal distributed wind power capacity configuration scheme. By adopting the method, the nonlinear and time-varying correlation between the photovoltaic load and the flexible load can be accurately captured, meanwhile, the stochastic chance constraint programming model considering the uncertainty of the source load is constructed, the economic optimization is realized, and the calculation efficiency is greatly improved.
Owner:STATE GRID SHANXI ELECTRIC POWER CO ECONOMIC & TECH RES INST

Cascade water-wind-light multi-power system modeling method based on time-space correlation

The invention discloses a cascade water-wind-light multi-power system modeling method based on time-space correlation, and the method comprises the steps: building an autoregression integral moving average-generalized autoregression condition heterovariance model of wind power photovoltaic power and cascade hydropower station runoff, building an R-vine, C-vine and D-vine Copula function spatial correlation model through employing a generalized autoregression condition heterovariance value, and carrying out the modeling of a cascade water-wind-light multi-power system. And selecting an optimal spatial correlation model according to a Bayesian information criterion, an akaike information criterion and a logarithm likelihood value goodness of fit index. Based on the optimal spatial correlation model, constructing a scene generation method of Latin hypercube-Copula function sampling, performing scene generation on the wind power photovoltaic power and the runoff volume of the cascade hydropower station, and constructing a scene reduction method of contour coefficient optimization Kmeans clustering to reduce the generated scene. The invention provides a time-space correlation cascade water-wind-light multi-power system modeling method, and aims to analyze water-wind-light multi-energy complementary operation characteristics and provide reference for a scheduling mode among water-wind-light multi-energy.
Owner:SDIC GANSU XIAOSANXIA POWER CO LTD +1

Power system operation risk key feature extraction method, system, equipment and medium

The invention discloses a power system operation risk key feature extraction method, system and device and a medium, and the method comprises the steps: giving a historical random variable, and carrying out the first processing, and obtaining low-dimensional clustering data; constructing a conventional graphic vine model, determining optimal parameters of the conventional graphic vine model based on the low-dimensional clustering data, and generating a sampling sample set; performing simulation before and after a fault based on the sampling sample set, and extracting features and labels of the training set and the test set by using an encoder; and constructing a power system safety rule according to the extracted features, and performing performance evaluation on the power system safety rule. According to the method, the R-vine Copula model and the depth automatic encoder are combined, so that the accuracy and robustness of risk assessment of the power system are remarkably improved. The method not only solves the problems of data imbalance and complex dependence caused by high-proportion new energy access, but also is superior to a traditional method in key indexes such as precision and F1 score, and provides more reliable decision support for safe operation of a power system.
Owner:GUIZHOU POWER GRID CO LTD +2

A method for generating typical scenes of water and scenery in a basin based on improved C-vine Copula

ActiveCN120493692BBalance complexityBalanced fitting accuracyDesign optimisation/simulationComplex mathematical operationsComplete dataPower station
A method for generating typical watershed hydro-wind-solar hybrid scenarios based on an improved C-vine Copula model is proposed. First, based on long-term multi-energy complementarity requirements, multi-year runoff data from a power station and power output data from wind and solar power stations within the watershed are selected, outliers are removed, and missing values ​​are filled, completing data preprocessing. Next, runoff and wind / solar output are set as random variables, and nonparametric kernel density estimation is used to obtain the marginal distribution functions of each variable. Then, the improved C-vine Copula model is used to accurately characterize the spatiotemporal correlation between water, wind, and solar resources, deriving the joint probability distribution. Then, Latin hypercube sampling is used to collect uniformly random samples stratified, and K-means clustering is used to generate typical scenarios. Finally, the effectiveness of the scenarios is evaluated from the perspectives of temporal and spatial correlation and randomness. This technology can effectively address the randomness and complexity of water, wind, and solar resources, generating realistic typical scenarios, providing valuable reference for the planning and scheduling of watershed hydro-wind-solar hybrid systems.
Owner:CHINA YANGTZE POWER

A distribution robust frequency modulation capacity evaluation method and system based on vine copula and spatiotemporal graph network

PendingCN122512417Asafe and stable operationAccurate dynamic frequency evolution trajectoryEngineeringTerm memory
This disclosure relates to a method and system for assessing frequency regulation demand capacity based on Vine Copula and a spatiotemporal graph network. The method includes: acquiring historical power and prediction error data of multi-dimensional source-load nodes in the power system to generate a typical power deficit scenario set; transforming the power system into a graph data structure, constructing and training a graph neural network-long short-term memory network spatiotemporal proxy model; integrating dynamic load shedding mechanisms and virtual synchronization control, and combining the prediction and verification results of the maximum frequency change rate and the minimum maximum frequency drop of each node by the graph neural network-long short-term memory network spatiotemporal proxy model to establish a dynamic frequency safety boundary; and based on the dynamic frequency safety boundary and the typical power deficit scenario set, establishing a two-stage sub-Bluerstein bar optimization model based on Wasserstein distance to solve and determine the optimal frequency regulation demand capacity configuration scheme for each node in the system.
Owner:PINGHU GENERAL ELECTRIC INSTALL CO LTD +1

Financial data generation method, system and device based on vine copula and storage medium

The application provides a financial data generation method, system and device based on vine copula and a storage medium, and comprises the following steps: obtaining financial data, converting the financial data into data conforming to the definition domain of a vine copula model, and saving corresponding conversion rules; determining the structure of the vine copula model and estimating corresponding parameters by using the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the converted financial data; generating model data based on the determined vine copula model; and converting the model data into data consistent with the original data scale by reversely applying the conversion rules, so as to obtain financial data based on vine copula. In order to solve the problems in the prior art, the method is a new data generation technology, and is used for solving the problem that a financial institution cannot establish a model or the effect of the model is poor due to data shortage. The technology is based on a probability statistical model, and can mine the dependency relationship between data features while generating new data.
Owner:INST FOR INTERDISCIPLINARY INFORMATION CORE TECH XIAN CO LTD

Joint uncertainty assessment method for wind power integration into power system based on time-varying fluctuation

The application provides a wind power access power system uncertainty joint evaluation method based on time-varying fluctuation, belongs to the technical field of power system uncertainty evaluation and dispatching auxiliary decision-making, and solves the technical problem that the existing method causes the low coverage and unreasonable interval width of the interval prediction result of the combined output of wind and light due to the rough residual fitting and the insufficient correlation description. The application firstly obtains the edge distribution based on short-term prediction and error fluctuation modeling, then constructs a joint distribution by using R vine Copula, outputs the prediction interval of each station and value under the given confidence, and gives the coverage and interval width indexes, so that the day-ahead or day-in dispatching can be connected, and rolling update and online deployment are realized. The application significantly reduces the interval bandwidth while ensuring the coverage, improves the robustness of the fast changing period, and enhances the safety and economy of new energy consumption.
Owner:HUANENG POWER INT ENERGY DEV CO LTD +2

Ramp demand node mapping method based on multi-source contribution degree allocation

The application discloses a method for mapping climbing demand nodes based on multi-source contribution degree distribution, and relates to the technical field of power system operation and control. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining initial weights of source and load nodes and system-level climbing demand; constructing a multi-dimensional joint distribution model reflecting the correlation of fluctuations of heterogeneous resources by using a Vine Copula function, and calculating dynamic contribution degree coefficients; performing spatial mapping calculation according to the dynamic contribution degree coefficients to obtain an expected power change component; constructing a cooperative game model, quantifying marginal contributions to network congestion elimination by using Shapley values, and distributing capacity relaxation; and finally generating a mapping scheme meeting node physical constraints. The application is used to solve the problems of mapping precision distortion under a multi-source random fluctuation environment and the difficulty of existing schemes in considering network congestion constraints.
Owner:HEFEI POWER SUPPLY COMPANY OF STATE GRID ANHUI ELECTRIC POWER +2

Multi-sensor missing data restoration method and system based on optimal D-vine copula

The invention relates to the technical field of monitoring data restoration, and particularly discloses a multi-sensor missing data restoration method and system based on optimal D-vine copula, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, decomposing high-dimensional copula into a product of pairwise copula, organizing the product through a tree structure, and simplifying high-dimensional modeling; s2, determining an optimal D-vine copula structure: efficiently realizing optimal sorting of variables in a first D-vine copula tree by utilizing a shortest Hamiltonian path method, and considering the change of marginal probability density distribution of each variable along with time; s3, performing non-parametric Pair-Copula estimation: adopting a non-parametric method to improve the fitting precision of each two-dimensional Copula in the D-line Copula, and avoiding a fitting error possibly brought by a parametric method; and S4, establishing a joint conditional probability density function about the occurrence of missing sensor data at the same moment under the condition that other intact sensor data are known by utilizing the optimal D-vine Copula, and further solving the missing sensor data by maximizing the function by taking the conditional probability density function as a target, thereby realizing missing value restoration.
Owner:XIAMEN UNIV

A wind turbine operation linkage analysis method based on Vine Copula model

The present invention relates to a method for analyzing the operational linkage of wind turbines based on a Vine Copula model. The SCADA data of several wind turbines are obtained respectively, the SCADA data are cleaned and integrated, and an operational linkage analysis data set is generated. The Vine Copula model is used to generate three dependency structures of R-Vine, C-Vine, and D-Vine. The AIC value, BIC value, Loglik value, and Vuong test value of the dependency structure are calculated, and the optimal dependency structure is obtained by comparison. The rank correlation coefficient, upper tail correlation coefficient, and lower tail correlation coefficient between each two wind turbines are calculated. The operational linkage of several wind turbines is determined based on the optimal dependency structure and the rank correlation coefficient, upper tail correlation coefficient, and lower tail correlation coefficient. The method of the present invention introduces the Vine Copula model from the wind farm level to perform operational linkage analysis on multiple wind turbines, and macroscopically analyzes the output of each unit, so as to facilitate the monitoring and diagnosis of a single faulty wind turbine during the operation and maintenance of the wind turbine.
Owner:ZHEJIANG UNIV OF TECH

Large-span cable-supported bridge multi-disaster vulnerability analysis method and system

The invention provides a large-span cable-supported bridge multi-disaster vulnerability analysis method and system, and belongs to the technical field of bridge multi-disaster vulnerability analysis based on a mathematical model. According to the method, a large-span cable-supported bridge multi-disaster intensity-structure response sample is obtained based on nonlinear time-history dynamic analysis, a KDE technology is introduced to capture data distribution characteristics and accurately establish edge cumulative distribution of the data distribution characteristics, C-vine Copula is introduced to describe a complex correlation of the data distribution characteristics, and a multivariate joint probability distribution model is established; and solving the structural damage probability through inverse fitting of the joint probability distribution model. The method can effectively overcome the defect that an existing vulnerability analysis method cannot give consideration to both calculation accuracy and analysis efficiency, and provides a reliable and efficient technical means for multi-disaster damage assessment of the large-span cable-supported bridge.
Owner:BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV

Multi-modal generation type artificial intelligence watermark embedding and tracing method

The invention discloses a multi-modal generation type artificial intelligence watermark embedding and tracing method. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a third-order nonlinear hybrid power system with fractional order Caputo derivative and time-varying Rikazi matrix closed-loop feedback at the same time; constructing a regular rattan structure which at least comprises R-Vine, C-Vine and D-Vine three-layer nesting and of which the total tree node number is not less than 4096; a finite time chaotic trajectory of a hybrid power system is subjected to spherical radial-vine Copula inverse mapping to generate an antagonistic watermark disturbance field, and meanwhile, the disturbance field is injected into an ultrahigh-dimensional singular value manifold of generative artificial intelligence output content in a nonlinear variational embedding mode. According to the method, the chaotic system and the rattan structure are combined, a watermark disturbance field with strong anti-interference is generated, effective watermark embedding and reliable traceability of the multi-mode AI content are achieved, and intellectual property ownership is guaranteed.
Owner:LINKER

Vegetation drought resistance index construction method and system

The invention discloses a vegetation drought resistance index construction method and system, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining multi-source time series data, unifying the space and time resolution, constructing a rainfall comprehensive index, a runoff comprehensive index, a soil humidity index and an underground water drought index, and employing an R-Vine Copula model for fusion to generate a vertical composite drought index VCDI; identifying a drought event and extracting the duration, severity and strength of the event; performing normalization processing on the kernel normalization difference vegetation index, the surface temperature and the VCDI, constructing a three-dimensional feature space, and defining and calculating a vegetation drought resistance index VDRI through an Euclidean distance; and calculating the vegetation drought recovery time and recovery force by using the VDRI abnormal value and the standardized abnormal value, and identifying the time-lag influence of drought on the vegetation ecological function through lagging cross-correlation analysis. According to the method, the drought process and the comprehensive influence of the drought process on vegetation are accurately described, the research blank in the field of drought-vegetation response comprehensive evaluation is filled up, and a scientific basis is provided for ecological restoration and drought adaptation management.
Owner:WUHAN UNIV

Wind power time sequence stochastic simulation method considering high-temperature heat wave event

The invention discloses a wind power time sequence stochastic simulation method considering a high-temperature heat wave event, and the method comprises the following steps: 1), defining a weather state type, and obtaining a historical typical weather state sequence; 2) based on the weather state type, establishing an upper-layer day-by-day weather state sequence; 3) establishing joint distribution for meteorological factors in each weather state in the historical typical weather state sequence by adopting an R-vine copula function, and constructing a meteorological factor joint probability density function; and 4) integrating the upper-layer day-by-day weather state sequence and the meteorological factor joint probability density function to generate a weather scene sequence, and inputting the weather scene sequence into the wind power generation physical model to generate a wind power time sequence. The wind power generated by the method can effectively capture the random change characteristics of weather and the duration of the heat wave event, and accurately reflect the heat wave events of different time scales.
Owner:GUANGXI UNIV

A network traffic anomaly detection method and system

The present invention discloses a network traffic anomaly detection method and system, which belongs to the field of network traffic anomaly detection technology. In view of the context dependency of network traffic and the correlation between different feature space dimensions, an adaptive sliding window mechanism is designed. When there are a large number of anomalies in the data, by maintaining the distribution of some historical normal samples, the missed alarm rate of anomaly detection can be effectively reduced. At the same time, the mechanism can dynamically update the joint distribution of normal network traffic features, thereby being able to fully capture the change pattern of normal network traffic and effectively reduce the false alarm rate of anomaly detection. In this process, considering that the Vine Copula function does not require the network traffic features to conform to a specific distribution type, the prior assumption is eliminated and the actual distribution of network traffic features is closer to the actual distribution. By introducing the VineCopula function to fit the distribution of normal samples in the historical window, the coupling relationship between different network traffic features can be accurately established, and network traffic anomaly detection can be performed efficiently and accurately.
Owner:HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH

A method and apparatus for evaluating the multidimensional complementary characteristics of water, wind and light based on improved vine structures

This application relates to a method and apparatus for evaluating the multidimensional complementary characteristics of hydropower, wind power, and solar power based on an improved vine structure. The method includes: obtaining a vine Copula function model by combining mutual information theory with the improved vine Copula structure; constructing a multidimensional evaluation index to measure hydropower regulation capability; defining an output correlation index for the multidimensional complementary hydropower system; obtaining the combined output of hydropower, wind power, and solar power based on the vine Copula function model; calculating the combined fluctuation rate and independent fluctuation rate of different combinations of hydropower, wind power, and solar power; selecting output fluctuation rate, power fluctuation suppression, and output smoothness as evaluation indicators for the overall output stability and volatility of the hydropower system, thus obtaining a multidimensional complementary characteristic evaluation system at the level of different combinations of hydropower, wind power, and solar power, and at the overall system level. This solves the problems that traditional evaluation index systems often only apply to assessing the complementarity between two power generation systems, failing to simultaneously capture the fluctuation trend correlation and slope correlation between adjacent time periods throughout the evaluation period, and neglecting the influence of fluctuation amplitude.
Owner:YALONG RIVER HYDROPOWER DEV CO LTD +1

Probabilistic modeling method of wind pressure coherence for long-span roof structures based on Vine Copula

A Vine Copula-based probabilistic modeling method for wind pressure coherence of large-span roof structures is proposed. A wind pressure coherence function for large-span roof structures considering different wind directions is proposed. The marginal probability distribution of the coherence function parameters is estimated using a generalized extreme value distribution. The probabilistic dependence of the coherence function parameters is quantified using Vine Copula, enabling effective simulation of wind pressure coherence for large-span roof structures considering wind field uncertainty. The specific implementation process is as follows: A. Preprocessing the measured wind pressure data for large-span roof structures to establish a wind pressure dataset; B. Derivation of a wind pressure coherence function model that considers wind direction and fitting the coherence function of the measured wind pressure under different wind directions using a nonlinear least squares method; C. Estimate the marginal probability distribution of the coherence function parameters based on the parameter samples of the fitted coherence function; D. Constructing the probabilistic dependence between the parameters of different coherence functions using Vine Copula; E. Using conditional sampling to generate random parameter samples, these parameters are substituted into the proposed coherence function to obtain the simulated wind pressure coherence function for large-span roof structures.
Owner:ZHEJIANG UNIV

Wind power access power system uncertainty joint evaluation method based on time-varying fluctuation

The invention provides a wind power access power system uncertainty joint evaluation method based on time-varying fluctuation, and belongs to the technical field of power system uncertainty evaluation and scheduling aid decision making. The technical problems of low coverage and unreasonable interval width of the interval prediction result of the wind-solar combined output caused by rough residual error fitting and insufficient correlation description in the existing method are solved. According to the method, firstly, unit edge distribution is obtained based on short-term prediction and error fluctuation modeling, then joint distribution is constructed through R-vine Copula, all stations and value prediction intervals are output under the set confidence coefficient, coverage rate and interval width indexes are given, day-ahead or intra-day scheduling can be docked, and rolling updating and online deployment are achieved. According to the method, the interval bandwidth is remarkably reduced while the coverage rate is ensured, the robustness of a rapid change period is improved, and the safety and economy of new energy consumption are enhanced.
Owner:HUANENG POWER INT ENERGY DEV CO LTD +2

Eutrophication Risk Assessment Method for Black and Odorous Water Bodies Based on KDE-Vine Copula

This invention discloses a KDE-Vine Copula-based method for assessing the eutrophication risk of black and odorous water bodies. The method uses a black and odorous water body identification model for initial identification, employs the SEaTH algorithm to identify feature importance, constructs a multi-dimensional feature space, optimizes the initial identification results based on the optimal support vector principle, estimates the marginal distribution using radial basis functions, selects the Copula function with the best fitting effect, and constructs a Vine Copula tree structure to assess the eutrophication risk of black and odorous water bodies. Compared to the original parametric method for constructing marginal distributions, KDE is not limited to any distribution assumptions and can maximize the satisfaction of the random variable distribution form, i.e., a better fitting effect. Overall, the method of this invention integrates multiple water quality parameters to construct an eutrophication risk assessment model, providing a new approach for water quality assessment.
Owner:CHANGCHUN INST OF TECH

Carbon boundary adjustment carbon footprint accounting factor correction method based on Copula model

The invention discloses a Copula model-based carbon boundary adjustment carbon footprint accounting factor correction method, which comprises the following steps of: obtaining a carbon footprint accounting sample set and a high-dimensional emission driving variable set of a target product, and recording a data quality score for each variable; marginal distribution fitting is carried out on the high-dimensional emission drive variable set dimension by dimension, normalization is carried out according to a unified quantile mapping rule, and marginal distribution parameters and normalized drive variable samples are obtained; constructing a Vine Copula dependency structure on the basis of the normalized drive variable sample, determining a root node sequence and an edge connection set according to a structure scoring criterion, obtaining the dependency strength of a variable pair, generating a dependency contribution weight in combination with a data quality score, and reducing the weight of the variable of which the dependency strength is lower than a preset dependency threshold value according to a preset attenuation rule; and performing weighting correction on the emission reference quantity according to the dependency contribution weight to generate a carbon footprint accounting correction factor and outputting a correction result. The method improves the stability of the correction factor under the participation of the high-dimensional variable.
Owner:GUANGDONG ZIHUAN NEW ENERGY CO LTD

A hydrogen energy cogeneration system scheduling method without conventional power supply support

PendingCN122472405AData setControl engineering
The application provides a hydrogen energy cogeneration system scheduling method without conventional power support, comprising the following steps: obtaining a set of prediction errors of decision variables according to a system operation model and a historical data set, adopting a regular vine Copula and Rosenblatt transformation, obtaining a set of prediction errors of limit scenario points according to the system operation model, the historical data set and an uncertain variable set, so as to obtain a fusion set, and adopting an asymmetric directional Wasserstein metric to determine a fuzzy set of prediction error probability distribution of the decision variables, and combining the system operation model to construct a two-stage distribution robust optimization model including day-ahead prediction and intra-day deviation adjustment, and solving to obtain a current decision value set. The method covers extreme working conditions without greatly increasing the conservatism, realizes effective balance of economy and system robustness, avoids generating a large number of pseudo-limit scenarios which are impossible to occur in meteorology, and balances the source and load risk costs.
Owner:NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV

Smart factory new energy safety early warning method based on knowledge graph

The invention discloses a smart factory new energy safety early warning method based on a knowledge graph, and the method comprises the following steps: collecting multi-source data in the operation of a plurality of devices, constructing a unified time series data set, carrying out the modeling of a complex dependency relationship between various operation parameters through a Vine Copula method, and obtaining the condition dependency intensity between variables; converting the identified abnormal state into an event sequence, establishing a triggering relationship between events by adopting a Hawkes process, reversely adjusting a dependency structure between variables through event triggering strength, realizing dynamic updating of the structure, constructing a risk map structure combining variable dependency and an event triggering mechanism, and carrying out path reasoning to obtain a risk map structure; and identifying the potential risk of the target variable, and outputting early warning information. According to the method, the relationship between data dependence and event influence among equipment can be comprehensively analyzed, and dynamic identification and early warning of potential risks in a complex industrial system are realized.
Owner:QINGDAO TECHCAL UNIV QINDAO COLLEGE

Interconnected renewable energy power system scene generation method based on novel communication association vine Copula model

The invention discloses an interconnected renewable energy power system scene generation method and system based on a novel communication association vine Copula model, and belongs to the technical field of power system scene generation. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring an edge distribution function; selecting contact between different areas as a communication variable, and establishing a communication association rattan structure based on the communication variable; performing optimization selection on each paired Copula model involved in the communication association rattan structure; based on the communication association vine Copula model selected through optimization, edge distribution vectors related to multi-dimensional variables are generated; and performing inversion on the edge distribution vector related to the multi-dimensional variable through the edge distribution function to generate an operation scene of the interconnected renewable energy power system. Compared with a traditional scheme, the method has obvious rationality in the scene generation principle of the interconnected renewable energy power system.
Owner:CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE CO LTD +4

Methods and apparatus for assessing the probability of vegetation ecosystem loss under combined meteorological-agricultural-hydrological drought stress

PendingCN122088781AAccurately describe the synergistic influence mechanismimprove rationalityForecastingComplex mathematical operationsSoil scienceGross primary productivity
This invention discloses a method and apparatus for assessing the probability of vegetation ecosystem loss under combined meteorological-agricultural-hydrological drought stress. The method includes: collecting standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized runoff index (SRI), and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI) on a grid-by-grid, monthly timescale in the study area, as well as total primary productivity (GPP) representing the health status of the vegetation ecosystem in each season; calculating the lag response time of GPP to different drought indices in different seasons, and determining the season in which GPP is most sensitive to drought stress; for the most sensitive season, selecting SPEI, SSMI, and SRI sequences at the scale corresponding to the lag response time, and establishing a four-dimensional Vine Copula model grid-by-grid; setting different drought and GPP loss level classification criteria, and establishing a vegetation productivity loss probability assessment model based on Bayesian theory. This method can more comprehensively and accurately assess the probability of vegetation ecosystem loss under drought stress.
Owner:HOHAI UNIV +1

A method and system for constructing a vegetation drought resistance index

The application discloses a vegetation drought resistance index construction method and system, which comprises the following steps: acquiring multi-source time series data and unifying spatial and time resolutions, constructing a precipitation comprehensive index, a runoff comprehensive index, a soil moisture index and an underground water drought index, and generating a vertical composite drought index VCDI by fusing the R-Vine Copula model; identifying a drought event and extracting an event duration, severity and intensity; performing normalization processing on a kernel normalized difference vegetation index, a land surface temperature and the VCDI, constructing a three-dimensional feature space, and defining and calculating a vegetation drought resistance index VDRI by using a Euclidean distance; calculating vegetation drought recovery time and recovery force by using VDRI abnormal values and standardized abnormal values, and identifying a time lag influence of drought on vegetation ecological functions by using lag cross-correlation analysis. The method accurately depicts a drought process and a comprehensive influence of the drought process on vegetation, fills a research blank in the field of comprehensive evaluation of drought-vegetation response, and provides a scientific basis for ecological restoration and drought adaptation management.
Owner:WUHAN UNIV