Electrical load prediction method and system based on big data

A technology of electricity load and forecasting method, applied in data processing applications, forecasting, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of efficiency impact and accuracy discount, and achieve the effect of high forecasting accuracy and improving computing efficiency.

Pending Publication Date: 2018-11-23
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

On the one hand, this challenge puts forward high requirements for data storage and backup, and on the other hand, it brings higher requirements for computer performance in terms of the speed and efficiency of processing and computing these big da

Method used

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  • Electrical load prediction method and system based on big data
  • Electrical load prediction method and system based on big data
  • Electrical load prediction method and system based on big data

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Embodiment 1

[0045] In order to realize the GBDT electricity load forecasting method based on big data in the present invention, GBDT (GradientBoosting Decision Tree) is an iterative decision tree algorithm, which is composed of multiple decision trees, and the conclusions of all trees are accumulated to make the final Answer. Integrating realistic scenarios, taking into account factors such as weather factors, time factors, and regional relevance, through mathematical modeling, under the condition of ensuring a certain fault tolerance rate and accuracy, the electricity load corresponding to a certain time in a certain area in the future is calculated. The prediction provides a certain reference value for relevant departments for the scheduling of power resources. like figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0046] Step 1: Obtain the weather forecast data of the power consumption area based on the forecast time;

[0047] Step 2: Bring the forecast time, power consumption area and weat...

Embodiment 2

[0080] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present invention also provides a big data-based electricity load forecasting system, such as image 3 As shown in FIG. 1 , a structural block diagram of the electric load forecasting system provided by the present invention is shown. The system includes:

[0081] Data module: used to obtain the weather forecast data of the power consumption area based on the forecast time;

[0082] Prediction module: used to bring the forecast time, power consumption area and weather forecast data into the pre-established forecast training model to obtain the historical forecast electricity load within the forecast period;

[0083] Wherein, the predictive training model includes: determining based on GBDT from a training feature data set of electricity load, time and weather data.

[0084] Preferably, the prediction module further includes: an establishment module;

[0085] It is used to obtain the training feature data set ...

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Abstract

The invention provides an electrical load prediction method and system based on big data. The method comprises the steps of acquiring weather forecast data of an electrical region based on predictiontime; and substituting the prediction time, the electrical region and the weather forecast data into a pre-established prediction training model to obtain a historical prediction electrical load within the period of prediction time, wherein the prediction training model is determined by a training characteristic dataset of the electrical load, the time and the weather data based on a GBDT (Gradient Boosting Decision Tree). According to the electrical load prediction method and system based on the big data, an operation of writing intermediate data into a memory is implemented through the big data, the computational efficiency is greatly improved for the system for implementing the effect that the data are processed in real time, and the problems that the historical mass electrical load data cannot be rapidly acquired, processed, analyzed and stored in a conventional method can be well remedied through a big data analysis technology.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention belongs to the field of big data calculation and analysis in the electric power industry, and in particular relates to a method and system for predicting electricity load based on big data. Background technique: [0002] Power forecasting is a very important part of today's power industry, and the level of power system load forecasting is also one of the symbols to measure the modernization of power system management. With the deepening of the reform of the electricity market, the power companies as the main body of the electricity market must base themselves on the electricity market, and all their economic activities must focus on economic benefits, and take in-depth research on the supply and demand situation and development of the electricity market as a company business activity. The basics. Therefore, doing a good job in power load forecasting is a necessary tool to accurately grasp the pulse of the market and analyze future power...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 田世明卜凡鹏张勇凌平苏运郭乃网
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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