A Wind Power Prediction Method Considering Wind Power Uncertainty Risk
A wind power prediction and uncertainty technology, applied in the direction of prediction, data processing application, system integration technology, etc., can solve the problems affecting system economy, improvement, forecast uncertainty tail distribution modeling, etc., to improve the power generation economy sexual effect
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[0037] The present invention provides a wind power prediction method considering the risk of wind power uncertainty, such as figure 1 shown, including the following steps:
[0038] Step 1: Extract data containing different feature information from historical observation data to form a training set S;
[0039] Specifically: form a training set based on historical data, including: N sample pairs, namely q N is the empirical distribution probability obtained from the statistics of the measured values, is the Nth wind power prediction error sample, including M measured wind power prediction error values. is the weight vector for N sample pairs, where the weight of the j sample sets for the i-th cycle and repeated learning is denoted as i∈[1,T], j∈[1,N], by assigning higher weights to larger error samples, repeated learning of larger error samples can be achieved to gain richer experience and achieve the effect of improving modeling accuracy , The expression is:
[0040...
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