Transformer comprehensive reliability evaluation and prediction method based on operation data

Abstract

The invention provides a transformer comprehensive reliability evaluation and a prediction method based on operation data, and belongs to the technical field of power transformation equipment operation evaluation; According to the evaluation and the prediction method, a final safety index of the transformer operation evaluation model is obtained through establishing an evaluation index system of the operation reliability of the transformer, according to an optimal combination importance degree of the estimated theoretical comprehensive index, and correcting an influence factor of bad working condition; a future safety index of the transformer is predicted based on an improved GM model, and finally a future reliability changing trend of the transformer to be evaluated is predicted. According to the evaluation and the prediction method, a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of the index that affect equipment reliability is conducted by combining the real-time operation data, the deformation diagnosis test and the fault overhaul condition of the transformer,, and influence of timing characteristics of its operating state on reliability parameters is considered. Therefore, the reliability changing trend of the transformer equipment is more truly reflected, and further guidance is provided for maintenance work.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of substation equipment operation evaluation, in particular to a transformer comprehensive reliability evaluation and prediction method based on operation data. Background technique [0002] As one of the key equipment in the power system, the power transformer undertakes the functions of voltage conversion, power distribution and transmission, and is the most critical link in the power transmission and transformation system. Its health level and operating status directly affect the entire safe operation of power systems. Therefore, it is of great significance to the safe operation of the entire power grid to evaluate the comprehensive reliability of transformer operation and improve the pertinence of power transformer maintenance. [0003] With the development of condition-based maintenance theory, transformer operation status and reliability evaluation technology has also received much attention, and many...

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Problems solved by technology

However, this method still has the following problems: First, there are too few parameters used for state evaluation, which only involves the evaluation of dissolved gas in transformer oil and internal insulation, but ignores the various uncertain stresses generated during the operation of the transformer. The hidden danger of mechanical deformation, so it cannot fully reflect the operating state of the transformer; in fact, mechanical stress shocks caused by external adverse conditions such as short circuit and intrusive waves occur from time to time, which also easily reduces the operational reliability of the transformer and leads to the risk of equipment failure. increase

Second, although the method adopts the combination weighting method in the determination of the importance of indicators, it only uses a simple linear combination model, and the combination coefficient is only determined by experience, which is not suitable.

However, the problem with this method is that when simulating the influence of the actual transformer operating conditions on the change trend of the failure rate, it only considers the natural rise of the failure rate with service age, thus simply advancing (or lagging) the failure rate curve on the time axis ), while ignoring the fact that the sudden change in the health status of the equipment during operation will make its reliability not necessarily change strictly according to the baseline aging curve

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