A wind speed prediction method along railway line considering wind direction and confidence interval

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind speed prediction method along a railway line considering wind direction and a confidence interval. A plurality of low-correlation wind speed prediction models are established by using historical wind speed data, the intelligent integrated optimization prediction results are optimized, the prediction accuracy is improved, and the wind direction is established at the same time. Wind speed prediction error joint probability distribution, combined with the wind direction prediction value of the target anemometry point, to obtain high confidence wind speed predictioninterval; the wind speed prediction error of each simulation and the wind direction real value at the corresponding time are taken as the first observation value of two-dimensional discrete random variable to construct the wind direction.The joint probability distribution of wind speed prediction error is used to establish the mapping relationship between wind direction and prediction error. Basedon wind direction, the high confidence interval of wind speed prediction error is obtained, which significantly improves the robustness of wind speed prediction, avoids the singularity of absolute wind speed prediction, and provides more accurate and effective prediction information for train operation decision-making.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of railway wind speed prediction, in particular to a wind speed prediction method along a railway considering wind direction and confidence interval. Background technique [0002] Strong winds are one of the main reasons for train derailment and overturning. Operational accidents caused by sudden strong winds often occur at home and abroad. Each accident will have a negative impact on the safety of citizens’ lives and property and the development of the country’s economy. Aiming at the hidden danger of sudden gale on the railway, many scholars have focused their research on wind speed prediction along the railway, hoping to use historical wind speed for time series analysis to achieve high-precision prediction of wind speed along the railway. [0003] The potential safety hazards caused by sudden strong winds are not only related to the wind speed, but also closely related to the wind direction. Under the same wind sp...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The potential safety hazards caused by sudden strong winds are not only related to the wind speed, but also closely related to the wind direction. Under the same wind speed level, the wind direction is highly related to the safe running speed of the train; a single wind speed prediction value is not easy to make scientific decisions. High-precision prediction in the wind speed fluctuation interval has higher practical significance

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