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A method for predict water demand of small sample

A water demand prediction and small sample technology, applied in the field of water resources management, can solve the problems of intelligent management gap and low level of informatization, and achieve the effect of improving prediction accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-01-18
CHONGQING TECH & BUSINESS UNIV
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Due to various factors such as historical reasons and technical level, the informationization level of my country's existing water supply supervision is generally low, and there is still a big gap in intelligent management.

Method used

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  • A method for predict water demand of small sample
  • A method for predict water demand of small sample
  • A method for predict water demand of small sample

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment Construction

[0033] Combine below Figure 1-2 The steps of a small-sample water demand forecasting method of the present invention are described in detail.

[0034] (1) Data evaluation, specific standards:

[0035] 1) Data length n<50;

[0036] 2) Level Ratio in

[0037] Both of the above criteria should be met at the same time.

[0038] (2) Establish an adaptive gray model (SIGM) by using the evaluated data (at least 4) as modeling data;

[0039] The specific process is as follows:

[0040] 1) For the water demand time series x (0) =[x (0) (1),x (0) (2),...,x (0) (n)] Do a superposition process to get a superposition sequence x (1) , x (1) =[x (1) (1),x (1) (2),...,x (1) (n)]. Among them, the generated x (1) according to z (1) (k)=0.5×(x (1) (k)+x (1) (k-1)) (k=2~n) generate the mean sequence z next to (1) .

[0041] 2) Use the least square method and Cramer's rule to analyze the three parameters in the model and Estimated, the following results are obtained: ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a small sample water demand prediction method, which comprises the following steps: evaluating historical data; performing adaptive grey modeling of the evaluated data; forecasting future water demand by adaptive grey model; outputting prediction results. The invention provides an effective way for the application of water resources management, large-scale water resources planning and the like in areas with low information management level by modeling and forecasting the water demand under the condition of small samples.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of water resources management, in particular to a small-sample water demand prediction method. Background technique [0002] Water demand forecasting can not only provide data basis for scientific scheduling of water supply system, but also improve water resource utilization efficiency, improve ecological environment, and promote harmonious and healthy development of society. Due to various factors such as historical reasons and technical level, the informationization level of my country's existing water supply supervision is generally low, and there is still a big gap in intelligent management. Therefore, accurate forecasting of water demand has always been one of the key issues faced by water resource management departments. [0003] In response to this problem, managers and researchers have established many forecasting models, such as regression analysis, trend extrapolation, moving average, gray model, machine le...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y02A20/152
Inventor 白云曾波敖文刚杨帅余婷梃
Owner CHONGQING TECH & BUSINESS UNIV
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