A river flood peak water level prediction method based on conditional probability distribution

A conditional probability distribution, flood peak water level technology, applied in forecasting, weather condition forecasting, complex mathematical operations, etc., to achieve the effect of strong theoretical foundation and reduced arbitrariness

Active Publication Date: 2019-02-15
江西省水利科学研究院
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Problems solved by technology

At present, there is no literature that introduces the construction method of conditional probabilit

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  • A river flood peak water level prediction method based on conditional probability distribution
  • A river flood peak water level prediction method based on conditional probability distribution
  • A river flood peak water level prediction method based on conditional probability distribution

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Embodiment Construction

[0022] The present invention will be further described below by means of embodiments and in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0023] Such as Figure 1-Figure 2 As shown, a river channel flood peak water level prediction method based on conditional probability distribution, counts the upstream and downstream flood peak water levels and propagation time series, and on the basis of determining the marginal probability distribution function, uses the Copula function to construct the upstream flood peak water level and downstream flood peak water level, propagation The two-dimensional joint probability distribution function of time, and then solve the conditional probability distribution function of the downstream flood peak water level and propagation time when the upstream flood peak water level is given, and then predict the downstream flood peak water level and its occurrence time. figure 1 It is the calculation flowchart of the present embodiment, and it is carried...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a river flood peak water level prediction method based on conditional probability distribution. According to the statistics of the flood peak water level and the propagation time series of upstream and downstream, on the basis of determining the marginal probability distribution function, the two-dimensional joint probability distribution function of upstream peak water level and downstream peak water level and propagation time is constructed by using a Copula function, and then the conditional probability distribution function of downstream peak water level and propagation time is solved when the upstream peak water level is given, and then the downstream peak water level and its occurrence time are predicted. The method of the present invention quantitatively gives regression curves of flood peak level of upstream section and flood peak level of downstream section, flood propagation time based on probability theory and mathematical statistics method. Comparedwith the conventional method of drawing empirical relationship curve by hand, the method of the present invention has stronger theoretical foundation, effectively reduces arbitrariness brought by handdrawing, and is more objective and reasonable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of flood control forecasting and early warning, in particular to a method for forecasting river flood peak water level based on conditional probability distribution. Background technique [0002] Forecasting the flood peak water level of river channel is one of the important contents of non-engineering flood control measures, which can provide technical support for flood control and emergency rescue as well as safe production of industry and agriculture. The flood in the natural channel moves from upstream to downstream along the channel in the form of flood wave, and the flood peak water level first appears in the upstream section of the channel, and then appears in the downstream section in turn. Therefore, the movement law of flood waves in the river channel can be used to predict the flood peak water level of the downstream section in the future from the current flood peak water level of the upstream section. [...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F17/15G06F17/18G01W1/10
CPCG01W1/10G06F17/15G06F17/18G06Q10/04G06Q50/26Y02A10/40
Inventor 刘章君许新发胡建民成静清温天福张范平贾磊
Owner 江西省水利科学研究院
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