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A power meteorological numerical weather forecasting method and device based on multi-space-time scales

A numerical weather forecast, multi-space-time scale technology, applied in electrical digital data processing, forecasting, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of inability to meet electricity demand, low spatial resolution of meteorological forecasts, and low accuracy of temporal resolution forecasts, etc. Achieve the effect of high time resolution and forecast accuracy, meeting the power demand

Pending Publication Date: 2019-03-08
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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Problems solved by technology

The weather forecast for power production and operation needs to provide "timing, fixed-point, quantitative" accurate weather forecast. Therefore, the weather forecast in the existing technology has low spatial resolution, time resolution and forecast accuracy, which cannot meet the power demand.

Method used

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  • A power meteorological numerical weather forecasting method and device based on multi-space-time scales

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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0073] Embodiment 1 of the present invention provides a method for numerical forecasting of electric meteorological elements, the specific flow chart is as follows figure 1 As shown, the specific process is as follows:

[0074] S101: pre-integrate the collected multi-source heterogeneous power meteorological observation data;

[0075] S102: Obtain a mesoscale numerical weather forecast model based on the fused power meteorological observation data and the actual distribution of transmission lines;

[0076] S103: Probability forecast, climate forecast, short-imminent forecast and refined forecast for power meteorological elements based on the mesoscale numerical weather forecast model.

[0077] In the above S101, the collected multi-source heterogeneous power meteorological observation data includes conventional meteorological observation data and unconventional meteorological observation data;

[0078] Routine meteorological data include grid micro-meteorological online moni...

Embodiment 2

[0107] Based on the same inventive concept as in Embodiment 1, Embodiment 2 of the present invention provides a numerical forecasting device for electric meteorological elements, including a fusion module, a determination module, and a forecast module. The functions of the above two modules are further introduced below:

[0108] The fusion module is used to fuse the collected multi-source heterogeneous power meteorological observation data;

[0109] The determination module is used to obtain the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model based on the fused power meteorological observation data and the actual distribution of transmission lines;

[0110] The forecasting module is used for probabilistic forecasting, climate forecasting, short-term forecasting and refined forecasting of power meteorological elements based on the mesoscale numerical weather forecasting model.

[0111] The power meteorological element numerical forecasting device provided in Embodiment 2 of the pr...

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Abstract

The invention provides a power meteorological numerical weather forecasting method and device based on multi-space-time scales. Firstly, the collected multi-source heterogeneous power meteorological observation data are fused. Then the mesoscale numerical weather forecast model is obtained. Finally, probability forecast, climate forecast, short-term and impending forecast and refinement forecast are carried out for electric power meteorological elements. Based on the fused electric power meteorological data, based on the mesoscale weather forecast model, an in-depth learning method, a method for real-time four-dimensional data assimilation and a fast cycle update method, a horizontal mesh resolution optimization method, a perturbation method of mode physical parameters, a continuous integration method are adopted and can realize the short-term, short-term, fine-grained, probability forecast and climate forecast, and can support multi-simulation function of new energy resources assessment, short-term and ultra-short-term power forecast, lightning, rainstorm, gale and other disasters early warning of electric power and meteorological numerical forecast, effectively improve the accuracy of meteorological forecast data, and comprehensively improve the support level of meteorological service power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric meteorology, in particular to a method and device for electric meteorological numerical weather forecasting based on multi-temporal and spatial scales. Background technique [0002] With the large-scale access of clean energy represented by hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics to the power grid, and the rapid construction of UHV power grids and smart grids, the relationship between meteorological conditions and power grid operations is getting closer. However, at present, meteorological agencies mainly provide public meteorological services such as daily meteorology, agricultural meteorology, and tourism meteorology, and have not yet provided meteorological services that meet the requirements of power grid operation. Power meteorological technology lags behind the actual needs of power grid operation. Power generation, transmission, distribution, and use are closely related to the meteorolog...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F16/2458
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 靳双龙冯双磊刘晓琳刘玉宝王伟胜刘纯王勃宋宗朋胡菊马振强王姝张周祥
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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