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Method for analyzing cause of highway traffic accident

A technology for traffic accidents and highways, which is applied in the traffic control system of road vehicles, traffic flow detection, traffic control system, etc. It can solve the problems of large amount of calculation in cause analysis and inaccurate analysis results, and achieve the goal of improving efficiency and accuracy Effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-03-26
HARBIN INST OF TECH
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the causes of expressway traffic accidents in order to solve the problem that the current analysis of the causes of expressway accidents has a large amount of calculation or the analysis results are inaccurate

Method used

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  • Method for analyzing cause of highway traffic accident
  • Method for analyzing cause of highway traffic accident
  • Method for analyzing cause of highway traffic accident

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0023] Specific implementation mode one: combine figure 1 , figure 2 The present embodiment is described, a kind of expressway traffic accident cause analysis method that the present embodiment provides, specifically comprises the following steps:

[0024] Step 1. According to the recorded data of expressway traffic accidents, a fault tree model of expressway traffic accidents is established, such as figure 2 shown;

[0025] The highway traffic accident data collected from the public security traffic management department, the larger the data sample size, the more accurate the analysis results. According to the original accident record data, the cause of the accident is counted, and the data is classified and summarized according to the four aspects of driver, vehicle, road and environment.

[0026] Step 2, constructing a Bayesian network model of expressway traffic accidents based on the fault tree model;

[0027] Step 3, carrying out quantitative analysis to the expres...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0031] Specific embodiment two: the difference between this embodiment and specific embodiment one is that the specific process of setting up the expressway traffic accident fault tree model described in step one includes:

[0032] Set the top event as traffic accident, the fault tree takes the least expected event in the system as the top event, set the second top event as driver factor, vehicle factor, road factor and environmental factor, and draw the second top event There are four independent sub-fault trees, and the relationship between the four independent sub-fault trees and the top event is an OR gate; then the events at all levels are decomposed step by step from top to bottom, and through several intermediate events, find the cause of the top event The most fundamental cause of the occurrence is the basic event at the bottom of the fault tree; the basic event is the specific cause of the accident; the logical relationship between events at each layer is described by ...

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0037] Specific embodiment three: the difference between this embodiment and specific embodiment two is that the specific process of constructing the expressway traffic accident Bayesian network model based on the fault tree model described in step 2 includes:

[0038] Step1. Determining nodes: The nodes in the Bayesian network are divided into the following three categories: ①Evidence nodes: variables with definite values ​​are used as known conditions to infer Bayesian networks; ②Target nodes: Bayesian networks The goal of the final reasoning; ③ intermediate node: the node connecting the evidence node and the target node. The basic event, logic gate and top event in the fault tree correspond to the evidence node, intermediate node and target node in the Bayesian network respectively;

[0039] Step2. Establish a directed acyclic graph: the connection between events in the fault tree corresponds to the nodes connected by directed arrows in the Bayesian network, thereby forming...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for analyzing the cause of a highway traffic accident, and belongs to the technical field of traffic safety management and control. The method comprises a step of establishing a highway traffic accident fault tree model based on highway traffic accident record data, a step of constructing a highway traffic accident Bayesian network model based on the fault tree model, a step of quantitatively analyzing the highway traffic accident fault tree model, a step of solving the maximum posterior probability of a target node and the contribution rate of each factor to the accident by using the highway traffic accident Bayesian network model and performing diagnostic reasoning with the combination of a quantitative analysis result, a step of performing sensitivity analysis on each factor to find a basic event which is most sensitive to each factor, and a step of combining the contribution rate of each factor to the accident and the basic event which is most sensitive to each factor. According to the method, the problem of a large calculation amount or an inaccurate analysis result of the reason analysis of the highway traffic accident at present is solved. Themethod can be used for analyzing the highway traffic accident.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of traffic safety management and control, in particular to a method for analyzing the causes of traffic accidents. Background technique [0002] my country's expressways have developed rapidly, and the mileage in operation has reached 131,000 kilometers, ranking first in the world. The construction of the expressway drives the economic development along the line and provides great convenience for people's life. However, the problem of highway traffic safety is still very serious. With the increase of construction mileage, the number of deaths, the number of injured, and the indicators of direct property loss have no obvious downward trend. Much higher than ordinary roads. It can be seen that analyzing the causes of accidents on expressways, accurately identifying the causes of accidents, and taking targeted safety improvement measures to reduce accidents are the key to improving the safety of expressway op...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01
CPCG08G1/0137
Inventor 孟祥海由冰玉曹梦迪张恩泽孙佳豪
Owner HARBIN INST OF TECH
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