Method and device for evaluating forecast effect of power transmission line icing

Abstract

The invention provides a method and a device for evaluating a forecast effect of power transmission line icing. The method comprises the following steps: determining evaluation parameters; and evaluating the forecast effect of power transmission line icing. The evaluation parameters comprise a skill score for the forecast effect of icing thickness, an optimal horizontal dimension, and a change trend of the skill score. The evaluation is objective, the phenomena of empty reporting and missing reporting is avoided, the evaluation result is reasonable, and the evaluation difficulty is reduced. According to the method and the device for evaluating the forecast effect of power transmission line icing, the forecast effect of power transmission line icing can be objectively and scientifically evaluated, and the availability and the applicability of the icing thickness forecast data are further improved, so that the operation and maintenance of the power grid are served. In addition, the availability of the forecast data can be maximized, scientific data support can be provided for maintenance personnel, and safe and stable operation of the power grid is guaranteed. Key parameters can be automatically set according to the factors such as icing time, icing thickness, icing type and other factors in different regions, so that the method and the device is closer to actual production of electric power, thereby maximally reducing labor cost and reducing resource waste.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid disaster prevention and mitigation, in particular to a method and device for evaluating the effect of ice coverage prediction of transmission lines. Background technique [0002] Icing on transmission lines will have a major impact on the safe operation of the power system. For example, icing will increase the load on transmission lines, cause accidents such as broken lines and collapses, and cause line flashovers and trips. According to statistics, the power grid accidents caused by icing accounted for about 32%. In the winter of 2016-2017, the lines in Sichuan, Xinjiang, Qinghai and other regions were successively covered with ice in micro-topographic areas, resulting in tower collapse accidents, resulting in tens of millions of direct damages. Economic losses. It can be seen that icing has become one of the main reasons that endanger the safe operation of power grid lines. In order to mini...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to overcome the shortcomings in the above-mentioned prior art that the evaluation is not objective, there may be many empty and missed reports, and the evaluation results are unreasonable, the present invention provides a method and device for evaluating the effect of transmission line icing prediction, based on The evaluation parameters are determined from the ice thickness observation data and ice thickness forecast data of the evaluated area; the evaluation index is used to evaluate the icing forecast effect of the transmission line based on the evaluation parameters and the preset evaluation indicators; the evaluation indicators include: ice thickness The skill score, optimal level scale, and skill score change trend of the forecasting effect, the evaluation is objective, avoiding empty reporting and missing reporting, the evaluation results are reasonable, and the usability of forecasting data is improved

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