An industrial park load prediction method based on combination of discriminant analysis and a support vector machine

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power grid power supply. The method comprises the following steps of: predicting the monthly load increase condition of the existing enterprises in theindustrial park: establishing an existing enterprise maximum load prediction model in the park by adopting support vector machine regression prediction based on a machine learning algorithm, and predicting the existing enterprise maximum load increase by utilizing the maximum load prediction model; predicting the newly added enterprise load demand condition in the park; constructing an enterprisebasic information index system and a maximum load demand scale discriminant analysis model; applying a discriminant analysis model, and in combination with basic information of newly-added enterprisesin the future of the park, subjecting maximum load requirements of the newly-added enterprises to discriminant prediction; and summarizing the existing enterprise monthly load demand of the park andthe newly added enterprise load demand of the park to obtain the monthly load increment information. According to the method, load demand prediction is carried out by combining the existing enterpriseload increase demand of the park built in the future and the maximum load demand of newly-added enterprises, and the short-term power consumption increase demand of the park is effectively judged.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of grid power supply, in particular to a method for forecasting electricity loads in industrial parks. Background technique [0002] With the advancement of the reform of the national power market and the promulgation of policies such as the "Orderly Release of Distribution Network Business Management Measures", social capital has begun to enter the field of power distribution and sales, and industrial parks have become the main reform test field, which has attracted attention from all walks of life. Affected by the priority of urban planning over distribution network planning, it is easy to lead to the problem of deviation between the actual power consumption load and the power supply capacity of the power grid in the newly added planning area, and the lack of guarantee for power demand has become the "bottleneck" of regional development. Commonly used load forecasting methods in administrative areas (inclu...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above methods mainly rely on the development of clear regional planning in the medium and long term. However, due to the difficulty in determining the development level of the industrial park under construction within the planning period, the short-term load is difficult to accurately predict, and the short-term actual power demand cannot be effectively estimated.

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