A Disaster Simulation Method of MOS Storm Surge Process Integrating Multiple Factors

Abstract

The present invention relates to the field of marine disaster prediction, a multi-factor MOS storm surge process disaster simulation method, the method includes the following steps: (1) Statistical analysis of the historical process of tropical cyclone storm surge disasters, analyzing the MOS storm surge model Characteristic factors, establish MOS storm surge model; (2) Determine the characteristic factor matrix, use the characteristic factor matrix as input, use support vector machine learning and training, and realize the simulation of tropical cyclone storm surge water increase. The invention can optimize the error between the simple numerical forecast and the actual measurement value of the tide station, and provide a new process simulation idea for the later refined storm surge forecast business.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of marine disaster prediction, in particular to a multi-factor MOS storm surge process disaster simulation method. Background technique [0002] Storm surge is one of the major marine disasters, and the storm surge disaster is the most destructive one among marine disasters, which has great damage to the national economy and the safety of life and property. With the rapid development of my country's coastal economy, the construction of coastal cities and the rapid expansion of infrastructure, the disaster losses caused by storm surges are increasing, often causing tens or even tens of billions of losses to the economy of coastal areas. The latest research shows that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones have a tendency to increase in the context of global warming. It can be expected that with the increase of the influence of tropical cyclones, the loss of life and property ca...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Initially, the relationship between storm surge surge and typhoon center pressure and wind speed was analyzed through historical observation data, and preliminary results were obtained by using empirical statistical methods to forecast storm surge surge. Most of these storm surge forecast methods are based on the analysis of historical The empirical forecast of the data, and the empirical forecast is often aimed at a specific area, and the deviation of the forecast result value is not satisfactory

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