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Method for calculating fault probability of nuclear power unit based on section probability network source correlation

A nuclear power unit, failure probability technology, applied in computing, AC network circuits, resources, etc., can solve the problems of difficulty in obtaining, rare failure samples of nuclear power units, and inability to reasonably characterize the characteristics of nuclear power units, so as to make up for the limitations and deficiencies Effect

Active Publication Date: 2019-08-09
ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] In order to solve the problems in the field of power equipment reliability evaluation that the traditional failure probability model of generating units cannot reasonably characterize the characteristics of nuclear power units, and the number of fault samples of nuclear power units is rare and difficult to obtain, the present invention provides a network source based on interval probability The Calculation Method of Related Nuclear Power Plant Failure Probability

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  • Method for calculating fault probability of nuclear power unit based on section probability network source correlation
  • Method for calculating fault probability of nuclear power unit based on section probability network source correlation
  • Method for calculating fault probability of nuclear power unit based on section probability network source correlation

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Embodiment Construction

[0052] In order to better understand the present invention, the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and specific embodiment:

[0053] The expression of interval probability is:

[0054] In the formula: P im (A) represents the interval probability of event A occurring; P (A) is the lower bound of the interval probability; is the upper bound of the interval probability, P (A) with satisfy constraint.

[0055] The inexact Dirichlet model (IDM) is an extension of the deterministic Dirichlet model, which uses a series of Dirichlet prior distributions, and the corresponding prior probability density function set is:

[0056]

[0057]

[0058] Where: θ=(θ 1 ,θ 2 ,…,θ N ) represents the vector composed of the probabilities of each state of the random variable, satisfying θ n ≥0,n=1,2,…,N and constraints; r n ,n=1,2,...,N represents the prior weight factor of each state of the random variable, which represen...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of reliability evaluation of power equipment, and particularly relates to a method for calculating the fault probability of a nuclear power unit based on section probability network source correlation. The method expresses the fault probability of the nuclear power unit in the form of section probability, fully treats the constraint that the fault samples of thenuclear power unit are lacking and difficult to obtain, compensates the limitation and deficiency of precise probability used in the case of small samples, and reasonably gives the possible fault section of the nuclear power unit. Compared with an independent fault probability model of a conventional thermal power unit, the method not only considers the fault probability caused by the own factors,such as aging, of the nuclear power unit, but also considers the characteristics of the network source correlation, namely, the influence of the grid operation parameter change on the fault probability of the nuclear power unit. The obtained fault probability parameter has high reliability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reliability evaluation of electric power equipment, and in particular relates to a calculation method of failure probability of nuclear power units based on interval probability network source correlation. Background technique [0002] With the construction of UHV, AC / DC hybrid, the access of renewable energy and the construction of the global energy Internet, the problem of safe and stable operation of the power system has become increasingly prominent, and it is very urgent to conduct a fast and accurate reliability and risk assessment of the power system . The failure or outage of power equipment is the root cause of the failure of the power system. The safe operation of power equipment is the basis for the safe operation of the system. The probability of equipment failure depends on factors such as its own health status, external environmental conditions, and system operating status. The failure probability mo...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00G06Q10/06
CPCH02J3/00G06Q10/0635H02J2203/20
Inventor 黄东山王斌林翔宇王晓明李明珀彭博雅
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD
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