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Time characteristic scale modeling method suitable for photovoltaic/wind power prediction

A technology of wind power prediction and time characteristics, which is applied in the direction of electrical components, circuit devices, AC network circuits, etc., and can solve the problems of intermittent energy sources such as immaturity

Active Publication Date: 2019-09-20
STATE GRID JILIN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY LIMITED +4
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the output time series of wind power / photovoltaic power plants has a certain periodical variation characteristics, and the research on the time characteristic scale of intermittent energy is not yet mature. At present, there are no similar research results at home and abroad.

Method used

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  • Time characteristic scale modeling method suitable for photovoltaic/wind power prediction
  • Time characteristic scale modeling method suitable for photovoltaic/wind power prediction
  • Time characteristic scale modeling method suitable for photovoltaic/wind power prediction

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Embodiment Construction

[0069] A temporal characteristic scale modeling method suitable for photovoltaic / wind power forecasting, such as figure 1 shown, including the following steps,

[0070] Step 1: Read the historical data P* of the active power of the photovoltaic / wind power station throughout the year by the data acquisition and monitoring control system;

[0071] Step 2: Preprocess the active power historical data P* of photovoltaic / wind power plants, add 0 at the beginning and 0 at the end to obtain a new active power time series P, and calculate the length N of the daily time series P;

[0072] Step 3: Use the cubic spline linear interpolation method to perform piecewise linear fitting on the new active power time series P obtained in step 2, and obtain the piecewise linear fitting curve of the active power of the photovoltaic / wind power station;

[0073] Step 4: extract the maximum and minimum points of the piecewise linear fitting curve obtained in step 3, and establish the fluctuation cha...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a time characteristic scale modeling method suitable for photovoltaic / wind power prediction, and belongs to the technical field of new energy power generation. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, carrying out segmented linear fitting on a continuous variation state power curve by using a cubic spline interpolation method; eliminating the same maximum or minimum point on the same horizontal line by adopting an arithmetic mean value method; constructing a ladder diagram which reflects a continuous variation state of active power of photovoltaic / wind power; and through a built multi-objective optimization-based intermittent energy active power time characteristic scale simulation model, determining an optimal time characteristic scale of active power of intermittent energy. The method is suitable for a photovoltaic / wind power station, and has the advantages of being high in applicability, wide in application range and the like. Meanwhile, for relatively regular and periodic data information, the short-term prediction precision of the active power of the photovoltaic / wind power station can be improved, and the power grid dispatching requirements are met.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of new energy power generation, and in particular relates to a time characteristic scale modeling method suitable for photovoltaic / wind power prediction. Background technique [0002] As a clean and abundant renewable new energy, wind power / photovoltaic power generation has attracted the attention of scholars at home and abroad. Research on wind power / photovoltaic power generation is becoming more and more mature, mainly focusing on power forecasting, optimal control, and capacity allocation of wind power / photovoltaic / energy storage systems. Due to the large amount of data stored in the database of wind power / photovoltaic power plants, when analyzing wind power / photovoltaic output data, it is necessary to consider the intensity and quantity of data collection, that is, the characteristic scale of data sampling time and data span. In the case of a certain acquisition span, if the time feature scale is small,...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00G06F17/50
CPCH02J3/00G06F30/20H02J2203/20
Inventor 王金行薛凯王振浩李群英高岩贺文彬韩晓娟焦日升张俊丰成龙王如伟李国庆林昌年吴喜军马明洋徐正清杨选怀张革宋嘉鹏李淼王菁曹盛楠
Owner STATE GRID JILIN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY LIMITED
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