Refined meteorological element forecasting system of near-ground layer and forecasting method thereof

Abstract

The invention, which relates to the field of meteorological element forecasting in the near-ground layer, discloses a refined meteorological element forecasting system of a near-ground layer and a forecasting method thereof. Different values of weather forecasting modes are integrated, coupled, and optimized to realize rapid cycle data assimilation. A forecasting area is designed and real-time dynamic refined near-ground meteorological element forecasting of an area and a single point under any landform is realized. The refined meteorological element forecasting system comprises a data downloading subsystem, a mesoscale weather forecasting mode subsystem, a three-dimensional variational assimilation subsystem, a CALMET small-scale meteorological model subsystem and a post-processing subsystem. In addition, the method includes: downloading grid data as well as conventional and unconventional meteorological observation data of the forecasting system; carrying out quality control and WRF mode pre-processing; carrying out rapid cycle data assimilation to obtain an optimized atmospheric initial field; carrying out area and single-point forecasting; acquiring an initial guess field and an underlying surface static field; carrying out downscaling forecasting based on a micro-topographic dynamics effect to obtain forecasting results of the near-ground layer at different heights; and carrying out post processing to obtain a final chart and a statistical result for outputting and displaying.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of near-surface meteorological element forecasting, in particular to a refined near-surface meteorological element forecasting system and a forecasting method thereof. Background technique [0002] In meteorology, the atmosphere about 100-200m above the ground is usually called the near-surface layer. Meteorological elements such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction in this layer of the atmosphere are closely related to human daily life. With the rapid economic development in recent years and the cross-integration of various disciplines and industries, the research and prediction of near-surface meteorological elements are widely used in wind resource utilization, wind power forecast, pollution control, civil aviation, railway, highway safety operation, agricultural disaster prevention, etc. The industry has received more and more attention, and it has very urgent and important practical significan...

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Problems solved by technology

The forecast of near-surface meteorological elements can be divided into two types according to the forecast method. One is the statistical method based on historical observation data, which requires not only the forecast of single-point near-surface meteorological elements, but also the forecast of regional near-surface meteorological elements. Restricted by factors such as the temporal and spatial distribution of observation data and the timeliness of prediction, it is difficult to meet the needs of actual business; the other is a physical method based on a single numerical weather prediction model, which can make up for the lack of observation data, especially in complex terrain. , however, although the physical method has a high degree of reliability in forecasting weather systems in the upper and middle layers of the atmosphere, there are still large errors and uncertainties in the forecasting of meteorological elements near the surface

[0003] In "Statistical Modeling of Basic Meteorological Elements Near Surface Layer" published by Xu Liren, Cai Jun, Li Kun, and Li Xia of Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology, the wind speed of basic meteorological elements was calculated using the observation data of near-surface iron towers through mathematical statistics and probability theory. Statistical modeling of temperature, humidity and air pressure is carried out, and a statistical characteristic model of basic meteorological elements near the surface of the complex underlying surface is established. Meteorological observation stations are scarce, and the accuracy of single numerical weather prediction model is limited, which seriously restricts the reliability of the near-surface meteorological element forecast. It is necessary to improve the existing weather forecast on the basis of the near-surface meteorological elements; Meteorological element forecasting system and its forecasting method to help people solve existing problems

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