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Method for calculating probability energy flow of comprehensive energy system

A technology of integrated energy system and calculation method, which is applied in the field of calculation of probabilistic energy flow of integrated energy system, and can solve problems such as uncertainty, uncertainty of integrated energy system, uncertainty of new energy power system, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2019-12-03
XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The integrated energy system can integrate various forms of energy, so there are inevitably reliability problems: the access of new energy has brought great uncertainty to the power system; the gas network load also has certain fluctuations and uncertainties. deterministic, and various forms of energy coupling will also bring uncertainty to the integrated energy system
[0006] To sum up, most of the current methods have problems of calculation speed and calculation accuracy. This patent proposes a fast point estimation method that combines Nataf transformation and considers boundary constraints to study the probabilistic energy flow problem of integrated energy systems. Effectively improve the solution accuracy and calculation efficiency

Method used

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  • Method for calculating probability energy flow of comprehensive energy system
  • Method for calculating probability energy flow of comprehensive energy system
  • Method for calculating probability energy flow of comprehensive energy system

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Embodiment 1

[0279]The comprehensive energy system of the calculation example of the present invention is as figure 1 As shown, the wind speed of the wind power system satisfies the Weibull distribution, and the light intensity of the solar system satisfies the Beta distribution. Assume that the wind speed is a normal wind speed (8.5m / s), and the gas grid load 3 is a fluctuating load, which satisfies a normal distribution. The wind speed distribution, power generation function, and photovoltaic light intensity satisfy the following relationship:

[0280]

[0281]

[0282] f(x)=20(x) 2 (1-x)0≤x≤1

[0283] Use Nataf transformation to add correlation to the sample, image 3 It is the distribution map between samples after Nataf transformation. from image 3 In (a), it can be seen that the correlation between fan 1 and fan 2 is 0.32, that is, ρ 12 =0.32, it can be seen from Figure (b) that the correlation between fan 1 and fan 3 is 0.45, that is, ρ 13 =0.45, as can be seen from Fig...

Embodiment 2

[0292] The comprehensive energy system of the calculation example of the present invention is still as figure 1 As shown, the wind speed of the wind power system satisfies the Weibull distribution, and the light intensity of the solar system satisfies the Beta distribution. At this time, the weather is in a windless state, the wind speed is abnormal (7.14m / s), and the air network load 3 is a fluctuating load. Satisfying the normal distribution, the wind speed distribution of the wind power system, the power generation function, and the photovoltaic light intensity satisfy the following relationship:

[0293]

[0294]

[0295] f(x)=20(x) 2 (1-x)0≤x≤1

[0296] Through the simulation calculation, the multi-point estimation results can be obtained as Figure 7 shown, from Figure 7 In (a), (b), (c), and (d), it can be seen that the accuracy of the 2-point estimation and the 3-point estimation is relatively low due to the existence of estimated points exceeding constraints...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for calculating probability energy flow of a comprehensive energy system. The method comprises: performing probabilistic modeling on a wind power generation unit, a photovoltaic power generation unit and a gas network load; obtaining a wind power generation probability model, a photovoltaic output model and a gas network load probability model; performing samplingaccording to a wind power generation probability model, a photovoltaic output model and a gas network load probability model, adding correlation to a probability sampling sample through Nataf transformation, then performing point estimation on the sampling sample, and solving the steady-state energy flow of the comprehensive energy system according to obtained estimation points. According to the method, uncertainty of wind energy and solar energy in a power system and uncertainty of gas load in a natural gas system are comprehensively considered, and a practical model for calculating probability energy flow is established. Considering the correlation between different wind power generation and different solar power generation in reality, the problem of comprehensive energy flow in a comprehensive energy system is solved by utilizing Nataf transformation, and the solving precision and the calculation efficiency are effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of comprehensive energy system reliability and specifically designs a calculation method for the probability energy flow of the comprehensive energy system. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the global energy situation has become more and more serious, and environmental problems related to energy consumption, such as atmospheric warming and weather pollution, have gradually deteriorated. Energy problems have affected the survival and development of all human beings. It has become the consensus of the world to explore a feasible, efficient and economical energy pattern and reduce the impact of energy consumption on the environment. The integrated energy system can complement each energy source, coordinate operation, improve energy utilization efficiency and economic benefits, and reduce the impact of energy consumption on the environment, so it has attracted widespread attention from all over the...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06F17/16G06F17/15G06F17/11G06Q50/06
CPCG06F17/11G06F17/15G06F17/16G06Q50/06Y02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 秦博宇方铖李景
Owner XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV