Short-term tide level forecasting method

Abstract

The invention relates to a short-term tide level forecasting method. The method is based on a data fusion technology. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used to fuse a universal tide model calculationwater level into a short-sequence tide level direct harmonic forecasting model; the post-fusion prediction data with higher precision than the two source data can be generated without depending on extra high-precision data or a calculation relationship, data tests show that the EKF method is at least effective for prediction of the last five days for the tide detection data of three days, and theaverage improvement degrees of the post-fusion data are 33% and 60% respectively compared with the two source data; for tide detection data of seven days, the EKF method almost generates an improvement effect in forecasting of the last 20 days, and the average improvement degrees corresponding to the two kinds of source data are 17% and 38% respectively.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of tide level forecasting, in particular to a short-term tide level forecasting method for coastal waters. Background technique [0002] The observation, analysis and forecast of tide level in the coastal waters have a direct impact on economic activities such as the construction of various marine projects, transportation, and fishery production mainly concentrated in this area. Especially for marine surveying and mapping, the quality of its work is largely based on the accuracy of tide level data. Long-term tidal level observations in most areas of my country started late, the overall number is small, and their distribution in various regions is uneven. Take Jiangsu Province as an example. The former Bureau of Oceanography performed long-term observations and provided forecast services at only 8 stations, including Lianyungang and Lusi. In addition to the small number, these long-term tide gauge stations are m...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

(2) The short-term data can accurately predict the astronomical tide level, that is, the original inaccuracy is due to the inability to accurately predict the non-astronomical tide level

However, there are still some problems: (1) It still relies on the corresponding long-term tide gauge data or the known regional difference coefficient, and it is very difficult to collect these data in reality; (2) The accuracy improvement index of some schemes is established On the basis of the comparison of the accuracy of the harmonic constant, there is still a difference from the comparison of the hourly actual water level; (3) The principle and calculation process of some schemes are relatively complicated and cannot be quickly used in actual production

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