Smart grid load prediction method

A technology of load forecasting and smart grid, which is applied in the field of smart grid, can solve the problems of irregular data points, low fitting accuracy, and difficulty in meeting the precise control needs of smart grid, so as to ensure the balance of power supply and demand, accurate prediction results, Effect of Simplifying Data Volume Requirements

Pending Publication Date: 2020-05-19
ELECTRIC POWER SCI & RES INST OF STATE GRID TIANJIN ELECTRIC POWER CO +4
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, most of the power load forecasting methods in parks use regression analysis to establish mathematical models for power load forecasting. Due

Method used

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[0035] The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the drawings.

[0036] A smart grid load forecasting method, such as figure 1 As shown, including the following steps:

[0037] Step 1. Collect the electricity load data of the park for one year and 12 months, and observe its trend.

[0038] In this step, pass figure 2 It can be seen that there is no obvious trend in the change of electricity consumption over time, so simple regression analysis methods cannot be used to predict electricity load, and Newton interpolation is a better choice.

[0039] The 12-month electricity consumption data of the park is shown in Table 1.

[0040] Table 1 24-hour power load data of the park (kWh)

[0041]

[0042]

[0043] Step 2. Choose appropriate training data for training and prediction of the Newton interpolation model.

[0044] In this step, in order to perform error estimation and correction, three sets of data are selected for calculation of the model, and ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an intelligent power grid load prediction method, which is technically characterized by comprising the following steps of: acquiring power load data of a park for 12 months ina year, and observing the trend of the power load data; proper training data is selected for training and prediction of the Newton interpolation model; predicting power load data of the missing monthby adopting a Newton interpolation method; correcting a Newton interpolation result by adopting an after-event error estimation method; and calculating a relative error between a final Newton interpolation result and a real value, thereby finishing intelligent power grid load prediction. The method is reasonable in design, can accurately predict the short-term power consumption load condition ofthe park, is simple and easy to implement, does not need to fit a specific function form, can perform prediction and obtain a better prediction effect only through several data points, and can providea reference basis for power grid dispatching formulation and power generation and supply plans.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of smart grids, in particular to a smart grid load forecasting method. Background technique [0002] The power load forecasting of the park is an important link in the planning of the power system. What it needs to solve is the balance between power supply and demand caused by the inability to store large-scale power, so as to ensure the quality of power supply. [0003] With the development of power system EMS, short-term load forecasting has become one of the necessary links of EMS, which provides support for the safe and economical operation of the power system. plan. Through the accurate prediction of short-term power load, it can provide a reference basis for power grid scheduling to formulate power generation and power supply plans, and ensure the balance of supply and demand of electric energy in the power grid. It can also provide data support for the production, transmission, distribution and sales...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 于波吴明雷王嘉庚唐志津卢欣李民朱伯苓石枫张超王海巍张智达孟昭斌杨延春韩慎朝吴亮刘裕德陈彬曹晓男隋淑慧张凡郭晓丹孙学文
Owner ELECTRIC POWER SCI & RES INST OF STATE GRID TIANJIN ELECTRIC POWER CO
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