Pipeline circumferential weld reliability sensitivity analysis method and device

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a pipeline circumferential weld reliability sensitivity analysis method and device, and the method comprises the steps of collecting the sampling data of a preset number of circumferential welds on a target pipeline, obtaining the numerical value of each pipeline variable according to the sampling data, and determining a corresponding specific statistical distribution model according to the numerical value of each pipeline variable; obtaining numerical values of a plurality of analysis points from a preset numerical value range, and obtaining numericalvalues of pipeline variables corresponding to the analysis points according to the numerical values of the analysis points and a specific statistical distribution model; obtaining the failure probability of the target pipeline according to the numerical value of each pipeline variable corresponding to each analysis point and a preset failure probability model, and dividing a failure domain according to the failure probability model to obtain the numerical value of each pipeline variable corresponding to each analysis point in the failure domain; obtaining the reliability sensitivity accordingto the numerical value of each pipeline variable corresponding to each analysis point and the reliability sensitivity analysis model, and evaluating the importance degree of the influence of the pipeline variable on the reliability of the pipeline circumferential weld accurately.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of pipeline safety, in particular to a method and device for analyzing reliability sensitivity of pipeline girth welds. Background technique [0002] The statistical results of pressure test failure and in-service failure accidents of oil and gas pipelines show that due to unreasonable design of pipe materials, poor quality of pipe manufacturing and construction, relatively backward welding level, corrosion of transport medium, etc., pipeline weld defects are an important reason affecting pipeline safety. Especially in the old pipelines in service in my country, there are many defects in the spiral welds and butt girth welds, which have become a major safety hazard causing pipeline failure accidents. From 1986 to 1996, a total of 30 pipe burst accidents occurred in the Dawo natural gas pipeline in eastern Sichuan, 27 of which occurred in the girth weld. Therefore, the reliability analysis of pipeline girth ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The invention provides a reliability sensitivity analysis method and device for pipeline girth welds, which are used to solve the problem in the prior art that it is impossible to determine the importance of each variable's influence on the reliability index of pipeline girth welds

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