Curative effect prediction system for MTX treatment of JIA before administration and establishment method thereof

Abstract

The invention relates to a curative effect prediction system for MTX treatment of JIA before administration and an establishment method thereof. According to the establishing method, the characteristic variable subset of the detection items of the JIA patient is screened out, the machine learning algorithm is used for establishing the curative effect prediction system for the characteristic variable subset, the AUC reaches 97%, the corresponding prediction sensitivity, specificity and accuracy are all 90% or above, and the prediction performance is remarkably improved compared with a system established through a traditional method. According to the curative effect prediction system, expensive genotype detection is not needed during curative effect prediction, prediction of the curative effect model can be completed only through conventional necessary examination items of a patient, extra payment detection is not needed, the patient does not need to wait for a long time, and the curative effect can be predicted only after conventional detection is completed on the same day of treatment. After a doctor sees a prediction result in time, a drug administration decision can be made to apatient immediately. The curative effect prediction system for MTX treatment of JIA before administration established by the establishment method is an effective tool which is simple, convenient, easyto use, efficient and capable of accurately predicting the MTX curative effect of a patient at an early stage.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of disease curative effect prediction, in particular to a curative effect prediction system for treating JIA with MTX before administration and its establishment method. Background technique [0002] Low-dose methotrexate (MTX) is the treatment of choice for juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), study finds. However, the efficacy of MTX varies greatly among individuals, and it is only effective for 30%–70% of JIA patients. Patients who do not respond to MTX are often given biological agents, such as infliximab, etc. or combined with MTX. Biological agents will bring more efficient control of disease activity, but if they are misused, high costs and serious adverse reactions may follow. In addition, it often takes 3-6 months for MTX to produce curative effect. Patients receiving "trial and error" medication for such a long period of time may delay treatment and cause irreversible damage to joint function or...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the limitations of this model are: the prediction accuracy of the model is not high (AUC is 72%); the model variable contains genotype, which requires additional expensive testing to use the model, thus limiting the clinical availability of the model Easy to apply; also, the study only used a traditional logistic regression algorithm, which may not be the best method for modeling and cannot be applied to all types of data

In addition to this article, other studies on the efficacy of MTX in JIA are limited to digging out which genotypes or clinical characteristics will affect the efficacy of MTX, but do not provide a quantitative impact, nor provide a clinical basis. Practical models cannot be practically applied to clinical practice to predict patient outcomes

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