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Photovoltaic power mutation prediction method and system

A power mutation and prediction method technology, which is applied in forecasting, photovoltaic power generation, information technology support systems, etc., can solve the problems of new energy power generation being easily affected by environmental factors, difficult output prediction, and intermittent, so as to improve the accuracy of forecasting , Guarantee stable operation, safe and reliable power supply, and reduce impact

Active Publication Date: 2021-04-06
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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Problems solved by technology

However, since new energy power generation is easily affected by environmental factors and has intermittent and fluctuating characteristics, it is difficult to predict output

Method used

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  • Photovoltaic power mutation prediction method and system

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Embodiment 1

[0019] This embodiment discloses a photovoltaic power mutation prediction method, such as figure 1 shown, including:

[0020] Step S1, collecting the location of the photovoltaic power station, terrain data, micro-meteorological monitoring data, satellite monitoring data and photovoltaic power station unit parameters.

[0021] In step S2, the cloud layer distribution is obtained based on cloud detection based on satellite water vapor inversion, and assimilated into a numerical prediction model.

[0022] In step S3, according to the topography data, micro-meteorological monitoring data, and satellite monitoring data, the small-scale numerical prediction calculation is carried out based on the numerical prediction model, and the solar radiation intensity data of each photovoltaic power plant unit location is obtained.

[0023] Step S4, calculating the sudden change rate of the cloud layer based on the historical cloud observation data; combining the sudden change rate of the cl...

Embodiment 2

[0028] Corresponding to the above-mentioned embodiments, this embodiment discloses a photovoltaic power sudden change prediction system, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and operable on the processor, and the processor executes the computer program When implementing the steps of the above corresponding method.

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Abstract

The invention relates to the field of photovoltaic power generation output prediction and discloses a photovoltaic power mutation prediction method and system so as to improve photovoltaic output prediction accuracy. The method comprises the following steps of collecting the position, landform data, microclimate monitoring data, satellite monitoring data and photovoltaic power station unit parameters of a photovoltaic power station; cloud layer distribution being obtained through cloud detection based on satellite water vapor inversion and assimilated to a numerical forecasting mode; according to the landform data, the microclimate monitoring data and the satellite monitoring data, performing small-scale numerical prediction calculation based on a numerical prediction mode to obtain solar radiation intensity data of each photovoltaic power station unit position; calculating to obtain a cloud layer mutation rate through historical cloud layer observation data; in combination with the cloud abrupt change rate, abrupt change prediction values of the solar radiation intensity of the position where the photovoltaic power station shielded by the cloud is located being obtained; and calculating a photovoltaic power station output predicted value according to the abrupt change predicted value of the solar radiation intensity in combination with the angle and conversion efficiency of the solar photovoltaic panel in the photovoltaic power station unit parameters.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of photovoltaic power generation output forecasting, in particular to a method and system for forecasting sudden changes in photovoltaic power. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of new energy, the proportion of new energy grid-connected power generation is increasing. However, since new energy power generation is easily affected by environmental factors and has the characteristics of intermittent and volatility, it is difficult to predict the output. Among them, photovoltaic power generation is affected by solar radiation intensity, battery components, temperature, weather clouds and some random factors. The operation process of the system is an unbalanced random process. Control, especially when the weather changes suddenly. Contents of the invention [0003] The purpose of the present invention is to disclose a photovoltaic power mutation prediction method and system, so as to improve the ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00H02J3/38H02J3/46G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCH02J3/004H02J3/381H02J3/466H02J13/00001H02J13/00006H02J13/00034G06Q10/04G06Q50/06H02J2203/20H02J2300/24H02J2300/40Y02E10/56Y04S40/12Y02E60/00Y04S10/50
Inventor 杨莉郭俊徐勋建冯涛怀晓伟
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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