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Simulation model credibility evaluation method based on large group Delphi framework

A simulation model, large-group technology, applied in design optimization/simulation, program code conversion, special data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as high cost, long time, and the inability of Delphi framework to manage large-scale evaluation experts.

Pending Publication Date: 2021-04-09
UNIT 63892 OF PLA
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, traditional Delphi frameworks are unable to manage large-scale assessment experts due to the drawbacks of time-consuming, high cost, diversity, complexity, and the need for human mediators to participate

Method used

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  • Simulation model credibility evaluation method based on large group Delphi framework
  • Simulation model credibility evaluation method based on large group Delphi framework
  • Simulation model credibility evaluation method based on large group Delphi framework

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Embodiment Construction

[0065] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the present invention, the technical solution of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0066] Such as figure 1 As shown, the method for evaluating the credibility of the simulation model based on the large group Delphi framework proposed by the present invention is applied to an embodiment of the credibility assessment of a certain electronic equipment simulation model, including the following steps:

[0067] Step 1, initialization: the moderator invites evaluation experts (including users, testers and developers) of a simulation model of electronic equipment to anonymously evaluate the credibility of the model, setting MaxP=50, MaxR=5, δ=0.3%, σ =0.8, t=0, NoMoreInv i = 0;

[0068] Step 1-2, collect decision information: set MinP=40, each evaluation expert provides an evaluation result represented by an exact value...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of simulation model credibility evaluation, and particularly relates to a simulation model credibility evaluation method based on a large group Delphi framework, which comprises the following steps: determining evaluation problems and candidate evaluation experts, and setting initialization parameters; collecting evaluation results of evaluation experts; filtering invalid evaluation results; converting the evaluation result into a normal cloud model; judging and deleting a low-quality evaluation result; allocating different weights to the evaluation experts; calculating a group evaluation result by adopting a weighted average algorithm of the normal cloud model; calculating a group consensus degree index; and carrying out feedback or output. According to the method, the flexibility of expert viewpoint expression, the efficiency of large-group decision making and the intuitiveness and heuristics of feedback can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of simulation model credibility assessment, in particular to a simulation model credibility assessment method based on a large group Delphi framework. Background technique [0002] The credibility of the simulation model refers to the degree of confidence that the simulation model reflects the real world in the context of the intended application. Accurate credibility evaluation is crucial to enhance the confidence of users in applying simulation models and results, and also provides a basis for comparing, optimizing and optimizing simulation models. Since modeling and simulation is an art, reliability assessment needs to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis, and it is very subjective to judge whether a simulation model is good or bad in the context of the intended application. Therefore, the credibility assessment of simulation models inevitably requires manual reasoning and interpretation, and the subjective assessm...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F8/41
CPCG06F8/44G06F30/20
Inventor 杨小军徐忠富任丙印牛腾欧阳海波贺正求周食耒
Owner UNIT 63892 OF PLA