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Equipment operation parameter short-time prediction method and system based on change rate

A technology of equipment operation and operating parameters, which is applied in forecasting, data processing applications, biological neural network models, etc., can solve the problems of short historical data, difficult practical application, inflexible accuracy, etc., and achieve the effect of simple structure and easy deployment

Pending Publication Date: 2021-06-18
节点互联(北京)科技有限公司
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

For example, parameter estimation can be realized by using Newton iterative algorithm and maximization of complete data, but this method is cumbersome in calculation, which makes practical application difficult; the failure time of parameters can be predicted by curve fitting method, but due to the short history data available Or incomplete, resulting in a large error in reasoning; due to the difficulty of determining the network structure, the need for a large number of samples, and the occupation of a large number of computing resources, the intelligent prediction method based on the neural network also has the problems of difficulty in field deployment and inflexibility and accuracy.

Method used

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  • Equipment operation parameter short-time prediction method and system based on change rate
  • Equipment operation parameter short-time prediction method and system based on change rate
  • Equipment operation parameter short-time prediction method and system based on change rate

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment example 1

[0080] Implementation case 1. Short-term prediction of main steam temperature change when boiler starts up

[0081] Let the field take data every 1 second, and the main steam temperature T is at a certain moment t during the start-up process. 1 Take 11 values ​​forward, namely: 313.78°C, 313.77°C, 313.76°C, 313.75°C, 313.74°C, 313.73°C, 313.72°C, 313.71°C, 313.70°C, 313.69°C, 313.68°C;

[0082] According to the calculation formula of the change rate, the change rate ΔT of the main steam temperature is obtained 1 ~ΔT 100.01°C / s, 0.01°C / s, 0.01°C / s, 0.01°C / s, 0.01°C / s, 0.01°C / s, 0.01°C / s, 0.01°C / s, 0.01°C / s, 0.01°C / s s, the positive and negative order of the rate of change satisfies the judgment of the continuous upward trend of the parameter;

[0083] Set ΔT 1 ~ΔT 10 The corresponding weight ω 1 ~ ω 10 0.2, 0.18, 0.12, 0.10, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07, 0.06, 0.05, 0.05 respectively, then the change rate ΔT of the rising trend of the main steam temperature T is 0.01°C / s;

[0084] ...

Embodiment example 2

[0086] Implementation case 2. Short-term prediction of main steam temperature change when the boiler is shut down

[0087] Let the field take data every 1 second, and the main steam temperature T is at a certain moment t during the start-up process. 1 Take 11 values ​​forward, namely: 427.52°C, 427.54°C, 427.55°C, 427.56°C, 427.57°C, 427.58°C, 427.60°C, 427.61°C, 427.62°C, 427.63°C, 427.64°C;

[0088] According to the calculation formula of the change rate, the change rate ΔT of the main steam temperature is obtained 1 ~ΔT 10 They are -0.02°C / s, -0.01°C / s, -0.01°C / s, -0.01°C / s, -0.01°C / s, -0.02°C / s, -0.01°C / s, -0.01°C / s, -0.01°C / s, -0.01°C / s, the positive and negative sequence of the change rate meets the judgment of the continuous downward trend of the parameters;

[0089] Set ΔT 1 ~ΔT 10 The corresponding weight ω 1 ~ ω 10 0.2, 0.18, 0.12, 0.10, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07, 0.06, 0.05, 0.05 respectively, then the change rate ΔT of the downward trend of the main steam temperature...

Embodiment example 3

[0092] Implementation case 3. Short-term prediction of steam turbine active power change during normal boiler operation

[0093] Let the field take data every 1 second, and the active power of the steam turbine at a certain time t 1 Take 11 values ​​forward, namely: 404.96MW, 405.01MW, 405.07MW, 405.12MW, 405.18MW, 404.73MW, 404.61MW, 404.67MW, 404.72MW, 404.78MW, 404.83MW;

[0094] According to the calculation formula of the change rate, the change rate ΔtP of the active power of the steam turbine is obtained 1 ~ΔtP 10 Respectively -0.05MW / s, -0.06MW / s, -0.05MW / s, -0.06MW / s, 0.45MW / s, 0.12MW / s, -0.06MW / s, -0.05MW / s, -0.06 MW / s, -0.05MW / s, the positive and negative sequence of the change rate meets the judgment of the parameter fluctuation trend;

[0095] Set ΔP 1 ~ΔP 10 The corresponding weight ω 1 ~ ω 10 are 0.15, 0.15, 0.12, 0.12, 0.10, 0.10, 0.08, 0.08, 0.05, 0.05 respectively, then the change rate ΔP of the fluctuation trend of the active power P of the steam turbi...

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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses an equipment operation parameter short-time prediction method and system based on a change rate, and relates to the technical field of equipment management. The method comprises the following steps of: firstly, calculating the change rate delta deltaPi of an operation parameter P in adjacent time according to values of interval time t before the current moment t1, judging the change trend of the operation parameter by utilizing the positive and negative sequence of each value of the change rate, and endowing each change rate delta deltaPi with a corresponding weight omega i according to the change trend of the equipment operation parameter P, and then calculating predicted change rates delta P under different change trends based on the change rates and the weights, and then calculating the change of the operating parameter P in the future delta t time by using the predicted change rates of the different change trends. According to the scheme, short-time prediction is carried out on the equipment operation parameters through the change rate, the algorithm structure is simple, a large amount of sample data is not needed, the interference influence of other parameters is small, deployment is easy, equipment management personnel can be effectively assisted in predicting the change trend of the equipment parameters in time, and good operation of each piece of equipment is ensured.

Description

technical field [0001] The embodiment of the present invention relates to the technical field of equipment management, and specifically relates to a method and system for short-term prediction of equipment operating parameters based on a rate of change. Background technique [0002] The operating conditions of the process industry (such as power plants, refineries, chemical plants, etc.) are complex and changeable. In order to ensure the safe and good operation of each equipment, operators often use DCS, SIS and other systems to monitor and judge the operating parameters of the equipment. However, due to the variety and complexity of equipment operating parameters, it is difficult for operators to have enough energy and reliable experience to predict the operation trend of each parameter. Usually, equipment failure has occurred when the system alarms, and even unavoidable losses have been caused. [0003] With the development of computer technology and related data predictio...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06N3/02G06K9/62
CPCG06Q10/04G06N3/02G06F18/214
Inventor 常峰吴丞冉周振波李帅崔孟立姜渭国
Owner 节点互联(北京)科技有限公司
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