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Nowcasting and short-term forecasting fusion system for wind field

A technology of nowcasting and short-term forecasting, applied in the intersection of meteorology and engineering disaster prevention, can solve problems such as the difficulty of wind speed forecasting accuracy, and achieve the effect of improving the accuracy.

Pending Publication Date: 2021-08-10
中广核(北京)新能源科技有限公司 +1
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0009] The present invention provides a fusion system of nowcasting and short-term forecasting for wind field in order to solve the problem that the accuracy of wind speed forecasting is relatively difficult in the existing integrated forecasting method

Method used

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  • Nowcasting and short-term forecasting fusion system for wind field
  • Nowcasting and short-term forecasting fusion system for wind field
  • Nowcasting and short-term forecasting fusion system for wind field

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0040] Specific implementation mode 1. Combination figure 1 Describe this embodiment, a fusion system of nowcasting and short-term forecasting for wind fields, build a model through artificial neural network, use nowcasting and short-term numerical forecasting as input source data, and obtain wind speed with higher accuracy. Including quality control module, error feature analysis module, model building module, inspection module and comprehensive effect evaluation module;

[0041] Quality control module: Preliminary screening of observation data by controlling the threshold range (0≤V≤50m / s) of live observation wind speed; according to the quality control code of the monitoring instrument, the data of poor quality of observation data and abnormal period of observation instrument are eliminated; The quality of data with high wind speed (V ≥ 24m / s) is reconfirmed. By comparing the sliding average value of the time series before and after the same station or the spatial average win...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0053] Specific embodiment two, combine Figure 2 to Figure 15 Describe this implementation mode, this implementation mode is an embodiment of a wind field-oriented nowcasting and short-term forecasting system described in the first specific implementation mode:

[0054] A wind field-oriented nowcasting and short-term forecasting system described in this implementation is applied to the Beijing area. Four characteristic months of October 2019, January 2020, April, and July were selected as sample data for model establishment. The live data uses the data of national and regional automatic stations as the live observation data, including 20 national stations and 567 regional stations, a total of 587 stations. After preliminary quality control, a total of 363 sites were eligible. Two schemes of multiple linear regression and BP neural network were used to model respectively, and the actual data of related samples and independent samples were tested and compared.

[0055] Such ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a nowcasting and short-term forecasting fusion system for a wind field, relates to the crossing field of meteorology and engineering disaster prevention, and solves the problem that the existing fusion integrated forecasting method is relatively high in difficulty in realizing wind speed forecasting accuracy. The system comprises a quality control module, an error feature analysis module, a model construction module, an inspection module and a comprehensive effect evaluation module. According to the nowcasting and short-term forecasting fusion system, a model is established through a BP neural network based on a large amount of site live data, nowcasting data and short-term numerical forecasting data, and the model can simply and quickly generate fusion data. The business real-time operation effect of the fusion system in the Beijing area is verified to be capable of effectively improving the accuracy rate of the wind speed.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the intersection field of meteorology and engineering disaster prevention, and specifically relates to a fusion system of wind field-oriented nowcasting and short-term forecasting. All fields need more accurate wind speed forecast and early warning. Background technique [0002] With the increasing demand of industry users for precise, accurate and fast professional meteorological services, the application of nowcasting is becoming more and more extensive. Users such as power grids, railways, wind power, and offshore engineering have precise early warning requirements for high-impact weather, especially strong wind nowcasting. It is also getting higher and higher. In addition to the accuracy requirements, users also hope that the forecasting time will be longer. However, the technical ideas of the existing nowcasting data are mostly based on the extrapolation method. The prediction reliability within 2 hours is relative...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06K9/62G06Q10/06G01W1/10
CPCG06Q10/06393G01W1/10G06F18/25Y02A90/10
Inventor 成和祥王仁磊郭禹琛董礼何晓凤张雪松肖擎曜王晓峰
Owner 中广核(北京)新能源科技有限公司
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