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Intra-region electrical load peak prediction method and power grid investment planning method

A technology of electricity load and forecasting method, applied in the direction of load forecasting, forecasting, and neural learning methods in AC networks, can solve the problems of poor forecast reliability and low forecast accuracy, so as to improve the accuracy and reliability, improve the Effectiveness

Active Publication Date: 2021-11-05
国网黑龙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problems of low forecasting accuracy and poor forecasting reliability of the existing electricity load peak forecasting method

Method used

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  • Intra-region electrical load peak prediction method and power grid investment planning method
  • Intra-region electrical load peak prediction method and power grid investment planning method
  • Intra-region electrical load peak prediction method and power grid investment planning method

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0036] Specific implementation mode one: refer to figure 1 This embodiment will be specifically described.

[0037] This implementation mode is a method for forecasting the peak value of electricity load in a region, which includes the following steps:

[0038] Step S1, collecting historical power consumption data of the area to be predicted;

[0039] The historical electricity consumption data includes civil electricity consumption, primary industry electricity consumption, secondary industry electricity consumption and tertiary industry electricity consumption, respectively and Indicates the electricity consumption of civilians, primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry at the kth time of the jth day of the i-th year in history, i=1,2,...,N, N represents A total of historical N-year electricity consumption data is collected, i=1, 2, ..., N, j = 1, 2, ..., 365, k = 1, 2, ..., 24;

[0040] Taking the current year as an example, the first year in the past ...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0066] Specific implementation mode two: this implementation mode is a method for power grid investment planning, and the method includes the following steps:

[0067] Based on the peak electricity consumption load in the year to be predicted, the reserved amount is set, and the reserved amount is added to the peak electricity consumption load, and the summed result is used as the installed capacity of the grid infrastructure in the grid investment planning.

[0068] The principle of setting the reserved amount is: according to the actual collected electricity consumption data and the predicted electricity consumption data from the current year to the year to be predicted, respectively calculate the difference between the peak electricity consumption loads of every two adjacent years, and then After taking out the largest difference Q, the difference between the peak power consumption load of the year to be predicted and the peak power consumption load of the year before the ye...

Embodiment

[0070] In this embodiment, the electricity consumption data of Harbin from 2001 to 2015 are collected, and the electricity consumption of civilian use, electricity consumption of the primary industry, electricity consumption of the secondary industry, electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and The peak power load data, among them, the peak power load data collected from 2001 to 2015 are shown in Table 1:

[0071] Table 1

[0072] unit Peak power load (MW) 2001 1582.8 2002 1732.9 2003 1914.6 2004 2087.3 2005 2205.2 2006 2302.8 2007 2356.2 2008 2409.2 2009 2464.2 2010 2525.8 2011 2598.1 2012 2689.3 2013 2779.2 2014 2868.7 2015 2960.2

[0073] Using the data of civil electricity consumption, primary industry electricity consumption, secondary industry electricity consumption and tertiary industry electricity consumption data from 2001 to 2010, the method of the present invention i...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an intra-region electrical load peak prediction method and a power grid investment planning method, and relates to the technical field of power grid investment planning. The invention aims to solve the problems of low prediction accuracy and poor prediction reliability of the existing electrical load peak prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, classifying and compressing and normalizing collected historical electricity consumption data , and generating a grayscale image based on a compressed and normalized value; and then inputting the generated grayscale image into a convolutional neural network in a month-based and classified manner to realize classified prediction of the power consumption load; and finally, summing the maximum power consumption load of each type to obtain a power consumption load peak value of the year to be predicted. Compared with an existing method, the power consumption load peak prediction accuracy and reliability can be remarkably improved, and the effectiveness of the power grid capital construction scale and the power grid investment planning is improved. The method is mainly used for predicting the electrical load peak value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a power load forecasting method and a grid investment planning method. It belongs to the technical field of power grid investment planning. Background technique [0002] With the economic development stepping into the new normal and the continuous deepening of power system reform, it is of great significance to accurately predict the scale of grid infrastructure for grid investment planning. The peak power load forecast is the basis for determining the infrastructure construction plan of the power grid power system, and it is also an important link to ensure the balance between the national economic needs and the power supply. The power supply capacity of a power plant is generally directly related to the grid infrastructure scale, and the existing grid infrastructure scale is based on the scheme determined in the previous planning stage, and the planning is generally determined based on an installed capacity, and the installe...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06N3/04G06N3/08H02J3/00
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0631G06Q50/06G06N3/08H02J3/003H02J2203/20G06N3/045Y02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 王莹高秀云丛云花项雯左峰姜妍岳义淼王思斯孙然周鸿博郎婧国立文
Owner 国网黑龙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院
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