A Method for Forecasting the Peak Power Load in a Region and a Method for Power Grid Investment Planning

A technology of electricity load and forecasting method, which is applied in the direction of load forecasting, forecasting, and neural learning methods in AC networks, can solve problems such as low forecasting accuracy and poor forecasting reliability, and achieve improved effectiveness, improved accuracy and reliability effect

Active Publication Date: 2022-03-11
国网黑龙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problems of low forecasting accuracy and poor forecasting reliability of the existing electricity load peak forecasting method

Method used

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  • A Method for Forecasting the Peak Power Load in a Region and a Method for Power Grid Investment Planning
  • A Method for Forecasting the Peak Power Load in a Region and a Method for Power Grid Investment Planning
  • A Method for Forecasting the Peak Power Load in a Region and a Method for Power Grid Investment Planning

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0036] DETAILED DESCRIPTION figure 1 Specifically, the present embodiment will be specifically described.

[0037] This embodiment is a peak prediction method for electrical load in a region, including the following steps:

[0038] Step S1, collect the historical power data of the area to be predicted;

[0039] The historical electricity data includes civilian electricity, electricity consumption, electricity consumption in the secondary industry, and electricity consumption in the tertiary industry. and Representing the civilian electricity consumption at the first industrial electricity, the first industry electricity, the secondary industry electricity, I = 1, 2, ..., n, n Total electricity data of N years, i = 1, 2, ..., 365, k = 1, 2, ..., 24;

[0040] Taking the current year as an example, the first year of the past refers to the first year before the current year, correspondingly expressed as the n-year in historical data, i = n; the past year refers to the second year bef...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0066] DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION 2: The present embodiment is a grid investment planning method, which includes the following steps:

[0067] Based on the amount of electricity load in the year to be predicted, the reservation is set, and the reservation is added based on the amount of electricity load peak, and the results will be used as the installed capacity of the grid investment planning.

[0068] The principle of setting the amount of reservation is: according to the actual electricity data and the predicted electricity data of the current year to predict the year, each two neighboring electricity load peaks are calculated, respectively, and then After the maximum difference Q is taken out, the electricity load peak of the year to be predicted is expressed as P, and the value of the electricity load peak value of the year before the year is expressed as P, the value of the reservation is QP. Investment Investment Planning in Power Grid Investment Planning in acc...

Embodiment

[0070] In this embodiment, Harbin is collected from 2001 to 2015, and the civilian electricity consumption is collected, the first industrial electricity, the secondary industry electricity, the tertiary electricity consumption and The electric load peak data is used, where the output of electricity load in the acquired 2001 to 2015 is shown in Table 1:

[0071] Table 1

[0072] unit Electric load peak (MW) 2001 1582.8 2002 1732.9 2003 1914.6 2004 2087.3 2005 2205.2 2006 2302.8 2007 2356.2 2008 2409.2 2009 2464.2 2010 2525.8 2011 2598.1 2012 2689.3 2013 2779.2 2014 2868.7 2015 2960.2

[0073] Using the civilian electricity consumption of 2001 to 2010, the first industrial electricity, the secondary electricity consumption, and the third industrial electricity data, the method of the present invention is adopted for the use of electric load in 2011 to 2015. To predict, the prediction results ar...

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Abstract

A method for predicting the peak value of electricity consumption in a region and a method for grid investment planning relate to the technical field of grid investment planning. The invention aims to solve the problems of low prediction accuracy and poor prediction reliability of the existing power load peak prediction method. The method firstly compresses and normalizes the collected historical power consumption data, and generates a grayscale image based on the compressed and normalized value; Realize the classification prediction of electricity consumption load; finally, sum up the maximum electricity consumption loads of various types to obtain the peak electricity consumption load of the year to be predicted. Compared with the existing method, the method of the present invention can significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of peak load prediction of electricity consumption, and improve the scale of power grid infrastructure and the effectiveness of power grid investment planning. It is mainly used for the prediction of peak power consumption.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a power load prediction method and a grid investment planning method. It belongs to the technical field of power grid investment planning. Background technique [0002] With the continuous deepening of the new normal and power system reform, accurately predicting the investment planning of power grid investment planning. The use of electric load peak prediction is the basis for determining the construction planning of the grid power system, and is also an important part of the mutual balance between national economics and power supply. The power supply capacity of the power plant is generally related to the scale of the grid infrastructure, and the existing grid infrastructure scale is based on the programs determined by the pre-planning phase. The plan is generally based on one installed capacity, and the installed capacity is generally directly Determining the target or based on the basic investigation, there is no effect ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06N3/04G06N3/08H02J3/00
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0631G06Q50/06G06N3/08H02J3/003H02J2203/20G06N3/045Y02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 王莹高秀云丛云花项雯左峰姜妍岳义淼王思斯孙然周鸿博郎婧国力文
Owner 国网黑龙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院
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