Cooperative load forecasting method based on maximum informational entropy

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of medium-term and long-term load forecasting in power distribution system planning and short-term load forecasting in power distribution system planning, relating to a cooperative load forecasting method based on maximum informational entropy. The method comprises the following steps of: calculating the statistical characteristics of an original forecasting scheme; analyzing the confidence level of the original forecasting scheme; obtaining a cooperative probability distribution function; simultaneously taking the statistical characteristics of an upper level and a lower level as constraint information, and obtaining the cooperative probability distribution function based on the maximum informational entropy principle; and obtaining a cooperative forecasting principle: based on the cooperative probability distribution function, calculating mathematical expectation and maximum probability, and finally determining the high scheme, medium scheme and low scheme of cooperative load forecasting. The method applies the maximum informational entropy principle in the theoretical research of load forecasting under power grid cooperative planning mode, and can realize the information comprehension of multi-section, multi-path and multi-scheme, thereby effectively solving the problem of data collision of an upper level network and a lower level network, realizing the cooperative forecasting of the upper network and the lower network and providing the reference basis for the planning and operation of the power distribution system planning.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the fields of medium and long-term load forecasting in power distribution system planning and short-term load forecasting in power distribution system operation, and relates to a collaborative load forecasting method. Background technique [0002] Load forecasting is the basic work of urban power grid planning, and the traditional forecasting method is gradually being replaced by the asynchronous collaborative forecasting method of multi-departmental division of labor. Collaborative forecasting can fully analyze multi-level information, reduce the impact of random errors on forecasted values, and achieve refined load forecasting. The working method of multi-departmental division of labor, asynchronous and collaborative forecasting needs to be completed with the help of the comprehensive planning information platform of urban high and medium voltage power grids. The steps are as follows: [0003] (1) Each subordinate unit makes...

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Problems solved by technology

The above literature applies the principle of maximum information entropy to the traditional field of independent planning of power grids. The comprehensive model proposed is suitable for independent load forecasting of a single department, can deal with the uncertainty of load changes, and can effectively improve the accuracy of forecast results, but it cannot adapt to In the field of power grid collaborative planning, the working method of upper-lower-level collaborative load forecasting cannot effectively solve the problem of data conflicts in the process of multi-department collaborative forecasting

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