The invention discloses a water resource bearing capacity evaluation method. The method comprises the following six steps of: firstly, determining an evaluation index weight by utilizing an information entropy principle; secondly, constructing a set pair model of an evaluation region and water resource bearing capacity evolution, introducing a concept of contact numbers, and contacting the identical discrepancy contrary of the set pair model; thirdly, based on an evaluation index system, calculating the contact numbers of each layer respectively from the bottom to the top, obtaining the contact number of the last layer in turn by combining a weight vector, and analogizing one by one by obtain the contact numbers of the overall system; fourthly, determining the values of the contact numbers of the systems at each level and a principal value of an n-component contact number by utilizing an equipartition principle; fifthly, equally dividing an interval [-1,1] into n levels by utilizing the equipartition principle according to the concept of the contact numbers to obtain n level intervals; and finally, comparing the values of the contact numbers of each level in the fourth step and the n level intervals divided equally in the fifth step, and analyzing the average mu is positioned in which interval, wherein the level corresponding to the interval in which the average mu is positioned is the evaluation level of the water resource bearing capacity.