Method for predicting bus arrivals

A forecasting method and public transport technology, applied in the field of information processing, can solve problems such as capacity decline and achieve accurate forecasting

Inactive Publication Date: 2011-08-17
SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV
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  • Method for predicting bus arrivals
  • Method for predicting bus arrivals
  • Method for predicting bus arrivals

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[0021] Example

[0022] Such as Figure 4 As shown, the prediction process of this embodiment is roughly divided into five parts: through three methods: vehicle-mounted RFID beacon equipment / card reader, loop electromagnetic induction coil, and vehicle-mounted GPS transceiver terminal to collect bus operating data and provide Real-time bus operation status information; use ArcGIS geographic information system software to eliminate erroneous data, determine the real-time location of the bus and the time of data return; According to the collected historical bus operation data, analyze the stability of bus operation by time period and road section; The stability analysis results select the corresponding bus arrival prediction method; for the road sections and time periods suitable for the arrival time prediction, establish the arrival time prediction model, comprehensively consider the historical bus operation data and real-time GPS data, and carry out the arrival time respectively ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting bus arrivals in the technical field of information processing. The method comprises the following steps of: firstly, judging running stability through analyzing historical running data of buses and dividing into periods suitable for different predicating manners; secondly, analyzing real-time GPS (Global Positioning System) data by adopting a Kalmanfiltering method to predict an arrival time in a prediction period; and finally, synthesizing two predicted results of the historical data and the real-time data into final release information by weighting errors. The method disclosed by the invention has better accuracy and rapid computing speed, and is easy for physical realization and popularization.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method in the technical field of information processing, in particular to a method for predicting the arrival of a bus. Background technique [0002] Bus arrival time prediction technology is the difficulty and focus of bus information release in urban intelligent transportation systems. Shanghai is currently vigorously promoting urban public transport, and has formed a rudimentary form of informatization for urban transport operation management and services. As an important part of the urban intelligent transportation system (ITS), the traffic information distribution system has developed rapidly in recent years. However, the construction of the conventional public transport information release system is still relatively backward compared with the rail transit information release system, and passenger complaints about the operation status of public transport vehicles occur frequently. [0003] The current prediction method...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/123
Inventor 崔秋石赵明月孙敏庞溟舟职蕾蕾
Owner SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV
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