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Method for predicting bus arrivals

A forecasting method and public transport technology, applied in the field of information processing, can solve problems such as capacity decline and achieve accurate forecasting

Inactive Publication Date: 2011-08-17
SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV
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  • Description
  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

However, its ability continues to decline with the increase of steps

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  • Method for predicting bus arrivals
  • Method for predicting bus arrivals
  • Method for predicting bus arrivals

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Embodiment

[0022] Such as Figure 4 As shown, it is the prediction process of this embodiment, and the specific implementation is roughly divided into 5 parts: through the vehicle-mounted RFID beacon device / card reader, the annular electromagnetic induction coil, and the vehicle-mounted GPS transceiver terminal, the bus operation data is collected, and the bus operation data is provided. Real-time bus operation status information; use ArcGIS geographic information system software to eliminate wrong data, determine the real-time position of the bus and the time of data return; analyze the bus operation stability by time and road section according to the collected historical bus operation data; Based on the stability analysis results, select the corresponding bus arrival prediction method; for the road sections and time periods suitable for arrival time prediction, establish an arrival time prediction model, comprehensively consider bus operation history data and real-time GPS data, and cal...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting bus arrivals in the technical field of information processing. The method comprises the following steps of: firstly, judging running stability through analyzing historical running data of buses and dividing into periods suitable for different predicating manners; secondly, analyzing real-time GPS (Global Positioning System) data by adopting a Kalmanfiltering method to predict an arrival time in a prediction period; and finally, synthesizing two predicted results of the historical data and the real-time data into final release information by weighting errors. The method disclosed by the invention has better accuracy and rapid computing speed, and is easy for physical realization and popularization.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method in the technical field of information processing, in particular to a method for predicting the arrival of a bus. Background technique [0002] Bus arrival time prediction technology is the difficulty and focus of bus information release in urban intelligent transportation systems. Shanghai is currently vigorously promoting urban public transport, and has formed a rudimentary form of informatization for urban transport operation management and services. As an important part of the urban intelligent transportation system (ITS), the traffic information distribution system has developed rapidly in recent years. However, the construction of the conventional public transport information release system is still relatively backward compared with the rail transit information release system, and passenger complaints about the operation status of public transport vehicles occur frequently. [0003] The current prediction method...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/123
Inventor 崔秋石赵明月孙敏庞溟舟职蕾蕾
Owner SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV
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