Landslide prediction method based on real-time monitoring of groundwater level and displacement

Abstract

The invention belongs to the slope stability estimation and landslide hazard monitoring and early warning technologies. A landslide forecasting method capable of utilizing underground water levels and displacement real-time monitoring includes the following steps: (1) landslide preliminary reconnaissance and monitoring point selection; (2) monitoring arrangement and installation of equipment; (3) monitoring the landslide displacement and the underground water levels in real time and processing real-time monitoring data; (4) statistical analysis period by unit and confirming mean-value underground water level HO and a displacement speed VO; (5) confirming underground water level loading and unloading parameters and loading and unloading quantities; (6) confirming displacement speed response parameters and displacement response quantities; (7) confirming the landslide displacement speed and underground water level loading and unloading response ratio parameters and numbers; (8) applying the underground water levels and displacement speed loading and unloading response ratio to carrying out evaluating slope stability and monitoring and early warning. According to the landslide forecasting method capable of utilizing the underground water levels and the displacement real-time monitoring, produced erroneous judgement or mistake judgement that landslide physics mechanical parameters, boundary conditions and the like can not be confirmed difficultly and accurately by the transitional ultimate equilibrium mechanics appraisal method can be overcome effectively.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of slope stability evaluation and landslide disaster monitoring and early warning, and in particular relates to the displacement and groundwater level coupling dynamic prediction parameters and stability evaluation method of water-induced landslide geological disasters. Background technique [0002] At present, in the field of slope stability evaluation and landslide geological disaster monitoring, early warning and prevention, the main prediction and evaluation methods widely used are limit equilibrium mechanics evaluation method and displacement time series prediction method. [0003] The limit equilibrium mechanics evaluation method regards the landslide body as a rigid body, and evaluates the stability of the slope by calculating the ratio of the anti-sliding force to the sliding force on the sliding surface as the safety factor. Although this method is a physical-mechanical model with clear stability cr...

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Problems solved by technology

Since displacement (deformation) monitoring has high precision and is easy to implement, and this type of method is a dynamic prediction model that includes time-varying relationships, this method overcomes the shortcomings of the limit mechanical equilibrium method to some extent, but all displacement time-series predictions The parameters monitored and evaluated by the method are only the displacement or displacement rate and its changing law, but the monitoring and evaluation cannot monitor and evaluate the cause of landslide displacement or displacement rate change. Therefore, this type of prediction method must have the following limitations: (1) the established only The mathematical apparent model, not the prediction model of the physical mechanism, generally can only explain the deformation and displacement process and law of the landslide, but cannot explain the formation mechanism and mechanical dynamics that cause the deformation and instability of the landslide; (2) The displacement prediction parameters do not have a unified instability judgment Therefore, it is difficult to make an accurate judgment and prediction on the occurrence time of landslide disasters.

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