Urban water disaster risk prediction method based on RBF (radial basis function) neural network-cloud model

Abstract

The invention discloses an urban water disaster risk prediction method based on an RBF (radial basis function) neural network-cloud model. The method includes (1) determining evaluation factors, levels and the indicator range under corresponding levels; (2) determining an expectation Ex and an entropy En of the cloud model; (3) determining the weight of each evaluation factor according to measured values of the evaluation factors and the indicator range of each level; (4) training the RBF neural network, finishing model establishment for the RBF neural network, inputting the measured values of the evaluation factors of the cloud model to the trained RBF neural network to perform simulated prediction, and obtaining a prediction value of each evaluation factor; and (5) substituting the prediction value of each evaluation factor to the integrated cloud model to allow the integrated cloud model to calculate corresponding certainty degree of the prediction value of each evaluation factor belonging to each risk level and multiply the corresponding weight to obtain integrated risk level distribution. The urban water disaster risk prediction method is visualized and reliable and strong in operability, and accuracy of prediction is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an urban water disaster risk prediction method, in particular to an urban water disaster risk prediction method based on an RBF neural network-cloud model. Background technique [0002] Natural disasters are one of the important factors restricting regional sustainable development. In recent years, various natural disasters have occurred frequently and intensified around the world, which has caused the world to re-understand the impact of disasters on the process of human civilization. In 1994, the first United Nations International Conference on Disaster Reduction adopted the Yokohama Strategy, which proposed guidelines for establishing safer prevention, preparedness and mitigation of natural disasters. In 2005, the United Nations International Conference on Disaster Reduction adopted the Kobe Strategy, proposing to adjust the disaster reduction strategy from disaster reduction to disaster risk reduction, and from pure disast...

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Problems solved by technology

In addition, the expression of the degree of risk is often based on a single level of the index system, which cannot reflect the uncertainty characteristics of the risk

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