Energy-saving risk probability considered provincial power grid electricity purchasing decision making system and method

Abstract

The invention discloses an energy-saving risk probability considered provincial power grid electricity purchasing decision making system. The system comprises a power plant tradable electricity quantity input unit, a random risk probability environment simulation unit, an electricity purchasing scheme generating unit and an electricity purchasing cost and energy-saving risk probability output unit. An electricity purchasing model is built inside the system, and a provincial power grid electricity purchasing scheme is obtained. According to the energy-saving risk probability considered provincial power grid electricity purchasing decision making system, the network loss factor of market transactions in an energy-saving electricity market is considered, and unit transaction electricity quantity energy-saving benefit evaluation indexes are built; with the reference of the probability risk concept, the market price, hydropower unit electricity quantity generation and randomness of system load electricity quantity requirements are considered, power grid company market electricity purchasing energy-saving risk probability indexes are built, an energy-saving risk probability considered provincial power grid electricity purchasing model is built in a randomly-planned theoretical framework for achieving optimization management of power grid company market electricity purchasing energy-saving risks, and a genetic algorithm with the dominant embedded target and the Monte-Carlo random simulation technology is adopted for solution.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric power energy saving, in particular to a provincial power grid power purchase system and method taking into account the risk probability of energy saving. Background technique [0002] In today's energy shortage, energy conservation and consumption reduction has been included in the national strategy and has become a binding indicator for national economic development. Evaluating and managing energy-saving benefits of the power industry, which accounts for a large proportion of energy consumption in the whole society, is of great practical significance to the realization of energy-saving and consumption-reducing goals. [0003] Theoretically speaking, energy saving and consumption reduction are consistent with the goal of optimizing resource allocation and improving energy utilization efficiency in the electricity market. However, in the early stage of China's electricity market construction, due to the se...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] 1) When the value-at-risk generated by the randomness of the market price of low-energy thermal power units exceeds the acceptable level of the power grid company, in order to achieve a reasonable avoidance of the value-at-risk, the power grid company will most likely need to reduce the randomness of the power price but increase the energy consumption. thermal power units increase power purchase

[0007] 2) When the power production of random hydropower units decreases or the demand for system load increases, so that the system load supply and demand do not meet the balan

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