A Multi-parameter Auxiliary Load Forecasting Method Based on Principal Component Analysis

A technology of principal component analysis and load forecasting, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of low forecasting accuracy, algorithm stays in the theoretical research stage, and difficult to apply flexibly, etc., to achieve simple operation and thoughtful thinking Intuitive, efficiency-enhancing effects

Active Publication Date: 2020-06-19
SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] 2. The prediction accuracy is not high, and the algorithm is gradually "mathematicalized". Most of the complex algorithms stay in the theoretical research stage, and it is difficult to flexibly apply them in engineering practice

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  • A Multi-parameter Auxiliary Load Forecasting Method Based on Principal Component Analysis
  • A Multi-parameter Auxiliary Load Forecasting Method Based on Principal Component Analysis
  • A Multi-parameter Auxiliary Load Forecasting Method Based on Principal Component Analysis

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Embodiment Construction

[0049] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0050] Such as figure 1 As shown, the multi-parameter auxiliary load forecasting method based on principal component analysis described in this embodiment is specifically: first, collect variables that affect the load, and then use principal component analysis to analyze the correlation between variables to find out Principal components; then, the principal components and historical load data are used as the model input, and the load is used as the output to train the model and realize load forecasting, in which the least squares support vector machine is used as the forecasting model; finally, the load density and the natural growth of the load are calculated rate and contemporaneous coefficient; it includes the following steps:

[0051] Step 1: Suppose there are n samples and p variables, and the observation data matrix is:

[0052]

[0053] Among them, X is the obse...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a multi-parameter auxiliary load forecasting method based on principal component analysis. Firstly, variables affecting load are gathered; then, a principal component analysis method is used for analyzing the correlation among the variables, and the principal component is found out; then, the principal component and historical load data together serve as model input, the load serves as output, and a model is trained and load forecasting is realized; and finally, the load density, the load natural growth rate and the percentage of concurrence are calculated. The load forecasting physical meaning is clear, the forecasting result is stable, and the forecasting precision is high. Besides, the forecasting method is a data-driven and adaptive method, and the forecasting result does not rely on the prior knowledge of the user.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of energy forecasting, in particular to a multi-parameter auxiliary load forecasting method based on principal component analysis. Background technique [0002] In the power system, the power load is a very important indicator, which is related to the stability of the entire power system operation. Among them, the electricity consumption in cities and agriculture has a greater relationship with the weather conditions, but the analysis of the data in recent years , the relationship between factors including weather conditions and power load is not a linear relationship, but a nonlinear relationship. Therefore, this project also studies the power load forecast by collecting other parameter data. [0003] Because the factors affecting the load are generally random, the load also presents certain random characteristics. In this way, it is necessary to establish a stochastic forecasting model, and carry out load...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 季天瑶洪丹仪吴青华
Owner SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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