Risk evaluation method for power grid with wind power based on three-point type mean value evaluation method

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk evaluation method for a power grid with wind power based on a three-point type mean value evaluation method, and the method comprises the steps: firstly building a probability density function based on a condition that the wind speed of one region approximately follows the double-parameter Weibull distribution; secondly determining the probability density function of wind power according to the relation between the output power of a wind turbine generator set of a wind power plant and the wind speed; finally determining all evaluation scenes of one power grid with wind power through the three-point type mean value evaluation method, thereby achieving the risk evaluation of the power grid. According to the invention, the method converts a continuous uncertain probability problem of the output power of a blower fan into a certainty mathematic problem of three estimation points, simplifies the uncertainty of risk evaluation, can effectively achieve the calculation of the risk index of the power grid with the wind power, and meets the daily calculation requirements of the power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a risk assessment method for a power grid containing wind power, in particular to a risk assessment method for a power grid containing wind power based on a three-point average evaluation method, and belongs to the technical field of power grid risk assessment. Background technique [0002] Energy is the basis for human survival and development, and the lifeblood of economic society. Since traditional fossil energy such as coal and petroleum is not renewable, improving energy utilization efficiency, developing new energy, and strengthening the comprehensive utilization of renewable energy have become increasingly prominent in the process of rapid social and economic development. Energy demand growth and energy shortage, energy utilization and the environment The inevitable choice of contradiction between protection. Among all kinds of new energy power generation technologies, wind power technology has received great attention ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At the same time, due to the randomness and intermittent nature of wind speed, it brings more uncertain factors after it is connected to the power grid. How to establish a corresponding evaluation model and complete the risk assessment of the power grid after large-scale wind power is connected is of great significance

[0003] At present, the grid risk assessment methods considering new energy access mainly include: 1) based on the distributed sampling Monte Carlo algorithm, the risk index of the wind power access system is given; 2) the wind power photovoltaic and other new energy generation The multi-state output power model of the system and the system evaluation method are given, but this method is limited to the reliability evaluation of the distribution network and cannot meet the calculation requirements of the large-scale transmission network; 3) Establish the off-grid index of the wind turbine, according to the Grid indicators and the electrical distance from the wind farm to the fault point, sort and screen the expected faults, generate an effective expected fault subset, and only perform online risk assessment and wind turbine off-grid warning for the possible faults in the effective fault set, which improves the calculation efficiency; 4) The method of qualitatively analyzing the sensitive weather factors of wind power forecasting, and using Monte Carlo random sampling to realize the estimation of the uncertainty of wind power forecasting, but this method has not been tried in the risk calculation of large power grids

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