Empirical mode decomposition-based establishment method for hour prediction model of energetic electron flux

A technology of empirical mode decomposition and high-energy electronics, which is applied in the fields of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems that the influence of non-stationarity is not taken seriously and the prediction is difficult, and achieve the goal of overcoming the difficulty of prediction and strong Regularity, the effect of improving accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-11-09
NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Previous models used statistical methods to solve the impact of nonlinearity on forecasting (References 19, 20), but the impact of non-stationarity was not taken seriously, which brought difficulties to forecasting

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  • Empirical mode decomposition-based establishment method for hour prediction model of energetic electron flux
  • Empirical mode decomposition-based establishment method for hour prediction model of energetic electron flux
  • Empirical mode decomposition-based establishment method for hour prediction model of energetic electron flux

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Embodiment Construction

[0097] The technical solutions and beneficial effects of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0098] The present invention provides a method for establishing a high-energy electron flux hourly forecast model based on empirical mode decomposition, including the following steps:

[0099] Step 1, simplify the time coefficient of high-energy electron flux by empirical orthogonal function;

[0100] Step 2, using the first-order basis function of the empirical orthogonal function to reconstruct and expand the empirical orthogonal function of the time coefficient of the high-energy electron flux;

[0101] Step 3, obtain the time coefficient of electron flux through known electron flux and basis function;

[0102] The present invention analyzes high-energy electron flux, solar wind parameters and geomagnetic index from 2001 to 2006. The high-energy electron flux comes from the >2MeV electron flux 5min data on the GO...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an empirical mode decomposition-based establishment method for an hour prediction model of energetic electron flux. The method includes the following steps: step 1. simplifyinga time coefficient of the energetic electron flux by an empirical orthogonal function; step 2. performing reconstruction expansion on the empirical orthogonal function of the time coefficient of theenergetic electron flux by employing a first order primary function of the empirical orthogonal function; step 3. obtaining the time coefficient of the electron flux by using the known electron flux and primary function; step 4, selecting an input parameter; step 5. decomposing the time coefficient by using an empirical mode decomposition EMD algorithm; and step 6. performing fitting on each of components of the time coefficient. The method overcomes the prediction difficulty of the energetic electron flux caused by non-stationary, a decomposed data sequence is stronger in regularity than an original data sequence of the time coefficient, and the prediction accuracy can be significantly improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for forecasting high-energy electron flux in space, in particular to a method for establishing an hourly forecast model for high-energy electron flux based on empirical mode decomposition. Background technique [0002] During the recovery phase of the magnetic storm, the satellite cannot function normally or is completely damaged. Geosynchronous orbit is located in the outer radiation belt region, which is populated by a large number of high-energy charged particles (relativistic electrons). Simultaneously, hundreds of geostationary orbit satellites operate in this area (Reference 1). When a large magnetic storm occurs, the high-energy electron flux will decrease in a short time, and then increase by 3-4 orders of magnitude. These high-energy particles have high energy, and a large number of high-energy electron fluxes penetrate from the outer radiation belt of the magnetosphere To geosynchronous orbit (GEO), in whic...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20
Inventor 张华钱烨栋杨建伟
Owner NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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