A medium-and long-term flood forecasting method based on cause analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium and long-term flood forecasting method based on cause analysis. Precursor indicators for genetic analysis include sunspots, West Pacific Subtropical High Ridge, Reservoir Inflow and Precipitation. The specific method includes a sunspot, west pacific subtropical high ridge, annual runoff point scatter diagram method, a West Pacific Subtropical High Ridge, Precipitation, Annual Runoff Point scatter diagram method, and a Previous Inflow, Previous Runoff, Annual Runoff Point scatter diagram method. The invention establishes an intuitive distribution graph by utilizing the precursory index and the occurrence law of the major flood, provides a reference for the medium and long-term major flood forecast of the reservoir, improves the accuracy of the medium and long-term major flood forecast, and can bring huge economic benefit and social benefit to the reservoir.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of medium and long-term hydrological forecasting, in particular to a method for medium- and long-term flood forecasting based on cause analysis. Background technique [0002] Hydrological forecasting is crucial for reservoir scheduling, flood control, power generation, irrigation, etc., and is an important basis for relevant departments and managers to make decisions. Therefore, it is particularly important to make accurate hydrological forecasts. In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of hydrological forecasting, especially mid- and long-term flood forecasting, people have proposed many methods for mid- and long-term hydrological forecasting from different directions and combined with corresponding subject knowledge, such as cause analysis and hydrological statistical methods, the latter mainly including Artificial neural network, gray system analysis, fuzzy mathematical model and other methods. ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The single-correlation graphic method is also mainly used in the forecasting method of the cause analysis, and the indicators used are mainly meteorological and hydrological single-station elements, such as the number of days with strong winds; the minimum and maximum temperature; the number of sunshine hours; Although it is indicative of the wet and dry years of some rivers, this method is greatly affected by human factors, and the forecast results are not unique, so it is difficult to conclude

In terms of forecasting methods, there is insufficient research on the effectiveness of various methods, which makes it difficult to popularize and apply existing methods in practice; in terms of practical application of forecasting results, medium and long-term flood forecasting is currently mainly a macro-control of water resources serve as some reference

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