A medium-and long-term flood forecasting method based on cause analysis

A flood forecasting, medium- and long-term technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, climate change adaptation, etc., can solve problems such as large impact, non-unique forecasting results, insufficient effectiveness research, etc., and achieve the effect of easy operation and intuitive methods

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-03-01
NANJING NARI GROUP CORP
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Problems solved by technology

The single-correlation graphic method is also mainly used in the forecasting method of the cause analysis, and the indicators used are mainly meteorological and hydrological single-station elements, such as the number of days with strong winds; the minimum and maximum temperature; the number of sunshine hours; Although it is indicative of the wet and dry years of some rivers, this method is greatly affected by human factors, a

Method used

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  • A medium-and long-term flood forecasting method based on cause analysis
  • A medium-and long-term flood forecasting method based on cause analysis
  • A medium-and long-term flood forecasting method based on cause analysis

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Experimental program
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Embodiment

[0039] (1) The relative number of sunspots, the ridge line of the subtropical high in the Western Pacific Ocean, and the method of point clustering of annual runoff

[0040] Dot-plot the relative number of sunspots (abscissa), subtropical high ridge line (ordinate), and annual runoff point aggregation diagram, see figure 1 As shown, the area in the lower right corner of the figure is the wet year area.

[0041] In the actual operation forecast, when the number of sunspots in the previous year is 15, and the ridge line of the Western Pacific Subtropical High is 33, that is, the location of "★" in the picture, and this point falls in the wet year area, it is predicted that there will be a wet year The probability is relatively high, and a forecast suggestion for a wet year is made.

[0042] (2) Western Pacific Subtropical High Ridge, Early Precipitation, and Annual Runoff Point-Cluster Mapping Method

[0043] Plot the ridge line of the subtropical high in the Western Pacific O...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a medium and long-term flood forecasting method based on cause analysis. Precursor indicators for genetic analysis include sunspots, West Pacific Subtropical High Ridge, Reservoir Inflow and Precipitation. The specific method includes a sunspot, west pacific subtropical high ridge, annual runoff point scatter diagram method, a West Pacific Subtropical High Ridge, Precipitation, Annual Runoff Point scatter diagram method, and a Previous Inflow, Previous Runoff, Annual Runoff Point scatter diagram method. The invention establishes an intuitive distribution graph by utilizing the precursory index and the occurrence law of the major flood, provides a reference for the medium and long-term major flood forecast of the reservoir, improves the accuracy of the medium and long-term major flood forecast, and can bring huge economic benefit and social benefit to the reservoir.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of medium and long-term hydrological forecasting, in particular to a method for medium- and long-term flood forecasting based on cause analysis. Background technique [0002] Hydrological forecasting is crucial for reservoir scheduling, flood control, power generation, irrigation, etc., and is an important basis for relevant departments and managers to make decisions. Therefore, it is particularly important to make accurate hydrological forecasts. In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of hydrological forecasting, especially mid- and long-term flood forecasting, people have proposed many methods for mid- and long-term hydrological forecasting from different directions and combined with corresponding subject knowledge, such as cause analysis and hydrological statistical methods, the latter mainly including Artificial neural network, gray system analysis, fuzzy mathematical model and other methods. ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26Y02A10/40
Inventor 李允军刘家庆郭希海宋雅坪李文龙李秀斌谢小燕王建平王峰徐峥孙羽包丹
Owner NANJING NARI GROUP CORP
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