Electric power load short-term forecasting method, model, device and system

A short-term prediction and power load technology, applied in the field of power system, can solve problems such as failure to meet users' normal electricity demand, failure to fully utilize equipment, and investment waste, so as to improve economic and social benefits, reduce power generation costs, and reduce energy consumption. consumption effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-03-15
SHANDONG UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

The accuracy of load forecasting will directly affect the rationality of investment, network layout and operation. If the load and power forecasting is insufficient, the development of the power grid will not be able to meet the needs of actual developme...

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  • Electric power load short-term forecasting method, model, device and system
  • Electric power load short-term forecasting method, model, device and system
  • Electric power load short-term forecasting method, model, device and system

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Embodiment Construction

[0056] The technical solutions in one or more embodiments of the present disclosure will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in one or more embodiments of the present disclosure. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the implementation of the present invention. example, not all examples. Based on one or more embodiments of the present disclosure, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0057] It should be pointed out that the following detailed description is exemplary and intended to provide further explanation to the present application. Unless otherwise specified, all technical and scientific terms used in this embodiment have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.

[0058] It should be noted that the terminology used here is ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power load short-term forecasting method, a model, a device and a system. Receiving influencing factor data, wherein the influencing factor data comprises air temperature data, holiday data and industry data, and quantifying the influencing factor by a quantization method corresponding to the load data; Wavelet decomposition is used to process the load data, and four sequences are obtained by de-noising and feature extraction. The correlation analysis is carried out with the data of influencing factors, and the set of correlation pairs of load characteristics and influencing factors is obtained. The four sequences obtained from the load data are preliminarily predicted by three exponential smoothing algorithms. The set of correlations between load characteristicsand influencing factors is predicted by ARIMA-GARCH method so that adjustment factors are obtained, and the preliminary prediction results and adjustment factors are input into long-term and short-term memory network, so final prediction results are obtained.

Description

technical field [0001] The disclosure belongs to the technical field of power systems, and relates to a short-term electric load forecasting method, model, device and system. Background technique [0002] The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present disclosure and do not necessarily constitute prior art. [0003] Electricity is the lifeblood of the national economy, and it plays a vital role in economic construction, national security, and social stability. In recent years, with the in-depth development of the power market reform, the power consumption and load of power users have higher and higher requirements on the quality of power delivered by the power system. Since electric energy cannot be stored in large quantities, it is required that the output of power generation should maintain a dynamic balance with changes in electricity and load. Otherwise, it will affect the quality of power supply, and endanger the safety and ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06K9/62G06N3/08G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18G06N3/08G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F18/23
Inventor 史玉良刘月灿王新军郑永清
Owner SHANDONG UNIV
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