Electrical load prediction model training method and device, and electrical load prediction method and a device

A technology of electricity load and prediction model, which is applied in the field of data processing, can solve problems such as difficult to accurately predict electricity load, and achieve the effects of fast calculation speed, good generalization ability, and good regression prediction accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2020-02-11
BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Therefore, the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the defect that it is difficult to accurately predict the electric load in the prior art, thereby providing a method and device for electric load forecasting model training and electric load forecasting

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  • Electrical load prediction model training method and device, and electrical load prediction method and a device
  • Electrical load prediction model training method and device, and electrical load prediction method and a device
  • Electrical load prediction model training method and device, and electrical load prediction method and a device

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Embodiment 1

[0039] In order to improve air quality, most regions have implemented the "electric energy substitution" winter heating development strategy with "coal-to-electricity" as the core project. The promotion has brought challenges to the quality of power supply and the safe operation of the distribution network. Due to the strong random fluctuation and large operating power of the electric heating load, the load characteristics and changing rules of the original low-voltage distribution network have been changed. The nighttime trough characteristics of the original load have been changed, and the electric heating load will be affected by various factors such as season, weather, and electricity price. The existing electricity load forecasting model does not consider the influence of these factors. The prediction method formulated by the load characteristics is difficult to meet the application requirements after the coal-to-electricity transformation.

[0040] An embodiment of the ...

Embodiment 2

[0115] An embodiment of the present invention provides an electric load forecasting model training device, such as Figure 16 shown, including:

[0116] The training data acquisition module 110 is used to acquire the historical data of the electricity load at multiple moments within a preset time period, the historical data includes the power of the electricity load at each moment, for a detailed description, see the description of step S110 in the first embodiment above.

[0117] The feature value extraction module 120 is configured to extract feature values ​​of historical data according to preset load feature indicators. For a detailed description, see the description of step S12 in Embodiment 1 above.

[0118] The feature training sample construction module 130 is configured to construct feature training samples according to the electric load power and feature values. For a detailed description, see the description of step S130 in Embodiment 1 above.

[0119] The predicti...

Embodiment 3

[0123] An embodiment of the present invention provides a power load forecasting method, such as Figure 17 shown, including:

[0124] Step S210: Obtain the historical data of the electricity load at multiple moments in the preset time window before the moment to be predicted. The historical data includes the power of the electricity load at each moment. For a detailed description, see the description of step S110 in Embodiment 1 above.

[0125] Step S220: According to the preset load characteristic index, extract the characteristic value of the historical data of the electric load at the moment before the moment to be predicted. For a detailed description, see the description of step S120 in the first embodiment above.

[0126] Step S230: Construct a prediction data set according to the historical data and characteristic values ​​of electricity load at multiple times. For a detailed description, see the description of step S130 in Embodiment 1 above.

[0127] Step S240: Input...

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Abstract

The invention provides an electrical load prediction model training method and device and an electrical load prediction method and device, and the training method mainly comprises the steps: obtaininge historical data of electrical loads at a plurality of moments in a preset time period,wherein the historical data comprises the electrical load power at each moment; extracting a characteristic value of the historical data according to a preset load characteristic index; constructing a feature training sample according to the electrical load power and the feature value; constructing a prediction model training sample set according to the feature training sample at the current moment, the feature training sample before the current moment and the feature training sample at the next moment; and training the neural network model according to the prediction model training sample set to obtain an electrical load prediction model. By implementing the electrical load prediction model training method provided by the invention, the characteristics of the electrical load in historical data can be fully mined, and the electrical load prediction model with higher precision can be trained.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of data processing, in particular to an electric load forecasting model training and electric load forecasting method and device. Background technique [0002] In recent years, in order to improve environmental quality, some areas have implemented the "electric energy replacement" winter heating development strategy with "coal-to-electricity" as the core project, replacing the traditional coal-fired heating mode with electric heating, which can not only effectively improve the cleanliness of the heating season It can suppress the spread of smog and haze weather, and can also make full use of new energy sources to improve air quality from the source. However, the rapid promotion of large-scale coal-to-electricity projects has brought challenges to the quality of power supply and the safe operation of the distribution network. power demand. The characteristics of strong random fluctuation and large operating power of ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06K9/62G06N3/04G06N3/08G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06N3/08G06Q10/04G06Q10/06315G06Q50/06G06N3/045G06F18/24Y04S10/50
Inventor 陈奇芳夏明超郭敏刘文霞李香龙孙钦斐
Owner BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV
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