Comprehensive energy system optimized operation method and system based on model prediction control framework

Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive energy system optimization operation method and system based on a model prediction control architecture. The method comprises the steps of obtaining source loadhistorical data; carrying out multi-step prediction on the source load historical data by adopting a recursive ARIMA model to obtain source load prediction data; obtaining a predicted value of the error through a grey prediction model according to the error between the measured data and the predicted data, and correcting the predicted value of the source load by using the predicted value of the error; and inputting the corrected source load prediction value into a rolling optimization model, and optimizing and outputting the prediction value of the output of each device by adopting a geneticalgorithm. In a feedback correction link, aiming at time lag of loads such as cold and heat, equipment cannot compensate prediction errors in a short time in a real-time adjustment stage, error multi-step prediction is introduced, and errors in a prediction link are compensated in advance, so that the equipment output is adjusted in advance, and the influence of fluctuation of renewable energy andload prediction on the operation of the system is reduced more effectively.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of optimized operation of distributed energy resources, in particular to a method and system for optimal operation of an integrated energy system based on a model predictive control framework. Background technique [0002] The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present invention and do not necessarily constitute prior art. [0003] The integrated energy system is the coordinated planning of various energy sources such as oil, natural gas, electric energy, and thermal energy in the integrated area, optimized operation and complementary mutual aid. While meeting the diversified energy needs of the system, it is necessary to effectively improve the energy A new integrated energy system that utilizes efficiency and promotes sustainable energy development. Due to its efficient energy utilization, the integrated energy system has attracted more and more attention in re...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006]However, most of the forecasting links are based on the day-ahead offline forecasting, and the forecasting error is relatively large, making it impossible to realize online forecasting; while in the feedback correction link, real-time adjustments are mainly used. Does not consider the problem that equipment with slow response time such as cold and heat cannot track the set value within the single-step optimization time

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