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Comprehensive energy system optimized operation method and system based on model prediction control framework

An integrated energy system and model predictive control technology, which is applied in the field of integrated energy system optimization operation method and system, can solve the problems of large prediction error, inability to realize online prediction, and no consideration, so as to reduce the impact of operation and adjust equipment output in advance. Effect

Active Publication Date: 2020-02-25
SHANDONG UNIV
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0006]However, most of the forecasting links are based on the day-ahead offline forecasting, and the forecasting error is relatively large, making it impossible to realize online forecasting; while in the feedback correction link, real-time adjustments are mainly used. Does not consider the problem that equipment with slow response time such as cold and heat cannot track the set value within the single-step optimization time

Method used

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  • Comprehensive energy system optimized operation method and system based on model prediction control framework
  • Comprehensive energy system optimized operation method and system based on model prediction control framework
  • Comprehensive energy system optimized operation method and system based on model prediction control framework

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Embodiment 1

[0034] figure 1 It is a structural diagram of the integrated energy system. The system mainly burns natural gas, including renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaics, gas generator sets, gas boilers, refrigerators and other equipment, and energy storage equipment such as batteries and heat storage tanks. The integrated energy system can be integrated with Grid-connected to buy and sell electricity to the grid.

[0035] In one or more embodiments, a method for optimizing the operation of an integrated energy system based on a model predictive control architecture is disclosed. First, renewable energy sources such as electricity and photovoltaics and user loads use a recursive ARIMA model to establish a multi-step forecasting model; The optimization link aims at the optimization of system operating cost, energy utilization rate, and comprehensive emission, optimizes the output of equipment for M hours in the future according to the prediction data of the prediction mo...

Embodiment 2

[0098] In one or more embodiments, an integrated energy system optimization operation system based on a model predictive control architecture is disclosed, including:

[0099] A device for obtaining historical data of source loads;

[0100] A device for obtaining source load forecast data by using a recursive ARIMA model to perform multi-step forecasting on source load historical data;

[0101] A device for correcting the error prediction value of the source load prediction value by using the error prediction value of the error prediction value of the real-time source charge data and source charge prediction data through the gray prediction model;

[0102] The device is used to input the corrected source load forecast value into the rolling optimization model, optimize and output the forecast value of each equipment output by genetic algorithm.

Embodiment 3

[0104] In some embodiments, a terminal device is disclosed, which includes a processor and a computer-readable storage medium, the processor is used to implement instructions; the computer-readable storage medium is used to store a plurality of instructions, and the instructions are suitable for processing The controller loads and executes the integrated energy system optimization operation method based on the model predictive control framework described in the first embodiment.

[0105] In other embodiments, a computer-readable storage medium is disclosed, in which a plurality of instructions are stored, and the instructions are suitable for being loaded by a processor of a terminal device and executing the model-based predictive control architecture described in Embodiment 1 An integrated energy system optimization operation method.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive energy system optimization operation method and system based on a model prediction control architecture. The method comprises the steps of obtaining source loadhistorical data; carrying out multi-step prediction on the source load historical data by adopting a recursive ARIMA model to obtain source load prediction data; obtaining a predicted value of the error through a grey prediction model according to the error between the measured data and the predicted data, and correcting the predicted value of the source load by using the predicted value of the error; and inputting the corrected source load prediction value into a rolling optimization model, and optimizing and outputting the prediction value of the output of each device by adopting a geneticalgorithm. In a feedback correction link, aiming at time lag of loads such as cold and heat, equipment cannot compensate prediction errors in a short time in a real-time adjustment stage, error multi-step prediction is introduced, and errors in a prediction link are compensated in advance, so that the equipment output is adjusted in advance, and the influence of fluctuation of renewable energy andload prediction on the operation of the system is reduced more effectively.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of optimized operation of distributed energy resources, in particular to a method and system for optimal operation of an integrated energy system based on a model predictive control framework. Background technique [0002] The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present invention and do not necessarily constitute prior art. [0003] The integrated energy system is the coordinated planning of various energy sources such as oil, natural gas, electric energy, and thermal energy in the integrated area, optimized operation and complementary mutual aid. While meeting the diversified energy needs of the system, it is necessary to effectively improve the energy A new integrated energy system that utilizes efficiency and promotes sustainable energy development. Due to its efficient energy utilization, the integrated energy system has attracted more and more attention in re...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/12
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/126Y04S10/50Y02E40/70
Inventor 张承慧董兴孙波卢建波
Owner SHANDONG UNIV
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