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System fuzzy reliability analysis method based on fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network

A technology of dynamic Bayesian and analytical methods, applied in the field of complex system modeling, which can solve the problems of insufficient data, incompleteness, and no ability to deal with fuzzy information.

Active Publication Date: 2020-04-03
XIDIAN UNIV
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  • Abstract
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Difficult if not impossible to obtain precise information due to insufficient or incomplete data
In these cases, experts can only provide a range of possible values ​​or a fuzzy number
However, the dynamic Bayesian network does not have the ability to deal with fuzzy information.

Method used

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  • System fuzzy reliability analysis method based on fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network
  • System fuzzy reliability analysis method based on fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network
  • System fuzzy reliability analysis method based on fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network

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Embodiment Construction

[0035] The specific embodiments of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0036] as attached figure 1 As shown, the flow of the system fuzzy reliability analysis method based on fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0037] S1, based on the structural analysis and design method, conduct functional analysis of the system to obtain the SADT diagram; based on the failure mode and effect analysis method FMEA, evaluate the possible failure modes of the system; use the SADT diagram to express the results of the functional analysis of the system , combined with the failure mode and failure cause analysis based on FMEA, the DBN model of the system is constructed.

[0038] The specific steps of the qualitative modeling of the system are as follows:

[0039] 1a) Analyze the influence relationship between the system function and the environment and its internal and external...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a system fuzzy reliability analysis method based on a fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining an SADT graph based on a structural analysisand design method; evaluating a possible fault mode of the system based on the fault mode and an influence analysis method; constructing a DBN model of the system in combination with the SADT graph and a fault mode and influence analysis method; obtaining a conditional probability table and a state transition matrix based on a Markov chain, and introducing a fuzzy set theory according to the obtained DBN model of the system; combining a conditional probability table and a state transition matrix to complete the model construction of the fuzzy DBN of the system; and on the basis of the constructed fuzzy DBN model, based on Bayesian reasoning, adopting MATLAB software for simulation to acquire a result of system reliability analysis. According to the invention, reliability research can be carried out on equipment which is stored in a design analysis stage for a long time and lacks data information; reliability research can be carried out on large aircraft equipment, complex structures and multi-fault-mode products; accurate reliability evaluation can be obtained from engineering fuzzy information.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability analysis, and specifically relates to a complex system modeling method which combines dynamic Bayesian network and fuzzy set theory and can deal with uncertainty and dynamic information. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of modern science and technology, all kinds of scientific research equipment are constantly being introduced, and their system structures are becoming more and more complex. The traditional reliability design and analysis methods have been difficult to meet people's description of the performance status and failure rules of such complex systems. Require. The state of such a complex system does not satisfy the "two-state assumption". During the entire process from normal operation to failure shutdown, it often goes through several intermediate states. The residence rules of these intermediate states are not the same, and the transition rules are complex. ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G05B23/02
CPCG05B23/0278
Inventor 马娟黄瀚姜浩高静丽杨翼蒙
Owner XIDIAN UNIV
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