Merging unit equipment state prediction method based on time sequence analysis

A technology of equipment status and prediction methods, applied in the direction of prediction, resources, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as unrecognizable and timely warning, lack of monitoring data mining and analysis, and inability to discover information and trends, so as to reduce maintenance costs and improve The effect of troubleshooting efficiency

Inactive Publication Date: 2020-11-13
GUANGZHOU BUREAU CSG EHV POWER TRANSMISSION
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Problems solved by technology

This method can only distinguish the "healthy" and "unhealthy" states of the system, and cannot identify and give timely warnings to the "sub-healthy" states in the middle area
In addition, this method lacks sufficient mining and analysis of monitoring data, and cannot discover information and trends hidden in the data

Method used

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  • Merging unit equipment state prediction method based on time sequence analysis
  • Merging unit equipment state prediction method based on time sequence analysis
  • Merging unit equipment state prediction method based on time sequence analysis

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Embodiment Construction

[0025] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0026] The method for predicting the status of the merging unit equipment in the present invention proposes a time series analysis method based on the monitoring data of the merging unit equipment status, especially the monitoring data of the laser driving current of the merging unit. In particular, according to the characteristics of the monitoring data of the normal operation state and abnormal operation state of the merged unit equipment, the arithmetic square root, variance and Dickey-Fuller test are used to analyze and evaluate whether the data conform to the characteristics of a stationary time series. On this basis The ARMA model and the ARIMA model are respectively constructed to predict the state of the merging unit equipment, and the root mean square error is calculated to evaluate the quality of the established model. The d...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a merging unit equipment state prediction method based on time sequence analysis. The method comprises the following steps of (1), preparing data, and constructing a data set;(2) trend analysis of normal data and abnormal data; (3) analyzing a time sequence and establishing a prediction model; and (4) predicting a state of a merging unit device. According to the method, through fitting the monitoring data of an operation state of the existing merging unit device, the information and trend hidden in the data are mined, maintenance cost is reduced, and troubleshooting efficiency is improved; time sequence analysis is adopted according to historical data, so prediction in the future is realized, and an alarm can be given in time when equipment runs abnormally; the prediction method of the merging unit equipment state is provided for analyzing and mastering the equipment state information.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the state of merging unit equipment, in particular to a method for predicting the state of merging unit equipment based on time series analysis. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the growth of the domestic economy and the improvement of national living standards, the rapid growth of my country's electricity demand and the urgent need for green and clean energy, China's EHV and UHV power transmission and transformation projects have entered a mature stage of technology. [0003] Under the premise of mature technology, how to keep improving, and the requirements for safety, stability and intelligence of ultra-high voltage and ultra-high voltage power transmission and transformation projects are getting higher and higher, which has become a serious problem to be faced. [0004] At present, DC transmission is developing towards high-voltage and large-capacity technology, and its advantages ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06F16/2458
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0635G06Q10/0639G06Q50/06G06F16/2462G06F16/2474
Inventor 罗炜张朝辉江一何平梁家豪王晨涛莫熙喆秦冠军金岩磊黄锴
Owner GUANGZHOU BUREAU CSG EHV POWER TRANSMISSION
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