A dynamical-statistical objective quantitative climate prediction method and system

A climate and dynamic technology, applied in the field of dynamic-statistical objective and quantitative climate prediction, can solve the problems of insufficient resolution of climate models, ignoring the evolution of physical processes, and not reaching the level of business prediction applications, so as to improve the accuracy and reduce the number of numerical models. effect of error

Active Publication Date: 2021-10-29
DADU RIVER HYDROPOWER DEV +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Climate numerical model prediction is the development direction of short-term climate prediction technology. However, the current climate model has problems such as insufficient resolution and the physical process described cannot fully reflect climate evolution. It has not yet reached the level of application in operational prediction.
Statistical methods still account for a large proportion of my country's short-term climate prediction business, but they have the defect of ignoring the evolution of physical processes

Method used

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  • A dynamical-statistical objective quantitative climate prediction method and system
  • A dynamical-statistical objective quantitative climate prediction method and system

Examples

Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0045] refer to figure 1 , is a structural schematic diagram of an embodiment of a dynamic-statistical objective quantitative climate forecasting system of the present invention, specifically, a dynamical-statistical objective quantitative climate forecasting system, including: a historical climate retrieval module 1, an abnormality diagnosis module 2, and a diagnosis correction module 3. Motive force-statistics objective quantitative prediction module 4, prediction scoring module 5; among them,

[0046]The historical climate retrieval module 1 is used to receive the correlation test between historical climate data and climate factors to establish each regional predictor set;

[0047] In this example, the historical climate data is the combined climate analysis data of the U.S. Climate Forecast Center and the climate data over the years generated by the National Climate Center’s global air-sea coupling model. The climate factors include 74 circulation indices compiled by the N...

Embodiment 2

[0058] Based on the system of embodiment 1, a dynamical-statistical objective quantitative climate prediction method is provided in this embodiment, and the flow chart can refer to figure 2 , specifically, includes the following steps:

[0059] S100: receiving the correlation test of historical climate data and climate factors to establish a set of predictors for each region; then execute step S200;

[0060] In this example, the historical climate data is the combined climate analysis data of the U.S. Climate Forecast Center and the climate data over the years generated by the National Climate Center’s global air-sea coupling model. The climate factors include 74 circulation indices compiled by the National Climate Center and 40 NOAA items. a climatic factor;

[0061] S200: Determine whether the previous factors in the set of predictors are abnormal by using preset discriminant indicators;

[0062] In this embodiment, the previous factors are climate factors in the January ...

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Abstract

The present invention provides a dynamic-statistical objective quantitative climate prediction method and system. The method includes the steps of: receiving the correlation test between historical climate data and climate factors to establish a set of prediction factors in each region; Whether there is an abnormality, if there is an abnormality, carry out the abnormal factor correction plan, otherwise carry out the optimal multi-factor combination correction plan; for error prediction, select the similar years and similar errors to the year to be predicted according to the correction plan, and carry out regional aggregation to form a national model forecast According to the national model forecast error and the original forecast result of the coupled circulation model, the national climate forecast result is obtained; the forecast test is to test the forecast result by calculating the PS score and anomaly correlation coefficient according to the actual climate of the year to be forecast. This method selects different correction schemes by judging whether there is an abnormality in the concentration of forecasting factors in each region, and finally achieves the effect of improving the accuracy of climate forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of climate prediction, and in particular relates to a dynamic-statistical objective and quantitative climate prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] The main factors affecting short-term climate prediction come from two aspects: external forcing and atmospheric interior. Then, the physical basis support for making short-term climate prediction should also come from these two aspects. In general research, it is known that external forcing factors include the ocean, the East Asian summer monsoon , sea temperature, sea ice, soil moisture, etc., and the movement and institutional changes of the atmospheric internal circulation include the North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Western Pacific Subtropical High, etc. [0003] Prediction of precipitation trend distribution in summer in my country is one of the most important business cont...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04
Inventor 陈媛蔡宏珂陈在妮陈权亮
Owner DADU RIVER HYDROPOWER DEV
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