A dynamical-statistical objective quantitative climate prediction method and system

Abstract

The present invention provides a dynamic-statistical objective quantitative climate prediction method and system. The method includes the steps of: receiving the correlation test between historical climate data and climate factors to establish a set of prediction factors in each region; Whether there is an abnormality, if there is an abnormality, carry out the abnormal factor correction plan, otherwise carry out the optimal multi-factor combination correction plan; for error prediction, select the similar years and similar errors to the year to be predicted according to the correction plan, and carry out regional aggregation to form a national model forecast According to the national model forecast error and the original forecast result of the coupled circulation model, the national climate forecast result is obtained; the forecast test is to test the forecast result by calculating the PS score and anomaly correlation coefficient according to the actual climate of the year to be forecast. This method selects different correction schemes by judging whether there is an abnormality in the concentration of forecasting factors in each region, and finally achieves the effect of improving the accuracy of climate forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of climate prediction, and in particular relates to a dynamic-statistical objective and quantitative climate prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] The main factors affecting short-term climate prediction come from two aspects: external forcing and atmospheric interior. Then, the physical basis support for making short-term climate prediction should also come from these two aspects. In general research, it is known that external forcing factors include the ocean, the East Asian summer monsoon , sea temperature, sea ice, soil moisture, etc., and the movement and institutional changes of the atmospheric internal circulation include the North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Western Pacific Subtropical High, etc. [0003] Prediction of precipitation trend distribution in summer in my country is one of the most important business cont...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Climate numerical model prediction is the development direction of short-term climate prediction technology. However, the current climate model has problems such as insufficient resolution and the physical process described cannot fully reflect climate evolution. It has not yet reached the level of application in operational prediction.

Statistical methods still account for a large proportion of my country's short-term climate prediction business, but they have the defect of ignoring the evolution of physical processes

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