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Photovoltaic development model construction method based on technical diffusion and dynamic planning

A technology of dynamic planning and construction method, applied in photovoltaic power generation, information technology support system, communication network with energy trade/energy transmission authority, etc. will not comply

Inactive Publication Date: 2021-02-09
国网青海省电力公司清洁能源发展研究院
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Since the development of renewable energy technology is a complex process and may not follow a certain fixed model, there are also many shortcomings in the application of the Bath model
For example: (1) The Bass model only considers resource constraints, that is, the maximum resource potential of the market, and cannot consider the influence of external variables, such as policy incentives and changes in external conditions; (2) The learning effect of solar photovoltaics not only comes from the accumulation of experience, It does not consider the technological progress or innovation caused by research and development; (3) it does not consider the influence of economic development level, resource potential, grid capacity and other dynamic factors in the development of solar photovoltaic power generation

Method used

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  • Photovoltaic development model construction method based on technical diffusion and dynamic planning
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  • Photovoltaic development model construction method based on technical diffusion and dynamic planning

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Embodiment Construction

[0037] A photovoltaic development model construction method based on technology diffusion and dynamic programming, including the following steps:

[0038] Step 1. Use the generalized Bass model to represent the annual new solar PV installed capacity.

[0039] The specific implementation method of this step is:

[0040]

[0041]Among them, n(t) represents the number of accumulative adopters in period t, which is the cumulative installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation, m represents the market potential, which is the maximum installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation, and p is the innovator coefficient, which means that technology diffusion is influenced by external information Influence, q is the imitator coefficient, which represents the internal influence of technology diffusion, x(t) adoption rate is the differential of n(t), indicating the annual new installed capacity of solar photovoltaic, h(t) is the impact function introduced , represe...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic development model construction method based on technical diffusion and dynamic planning. The photovoltaic development model construction method is technically characterized in that a generalized Bas model is used for representing the newly increased solar photovoltaic installed capacity every year; constructing a function of the total cost according to the cost composition of solar photovoltaic power generation; calculating the retired installed capacity according to the current solar photovoltaic power generation condition; and constructing a dynamic transfer equation of the dynamic planning model, generating a dynamic planning model of solar photovoltaic power generation, and determining constraint conditions. According to the method, the thought of comprehensive planning is adopted, the possible effect of technical progress in a solar photovoltaic power generation path and the influence of the technical progress on the cost are considered, a solar photovoltaic development model in China can be dynamically constructed and researched, and a foundation is laid for photovoltaic development in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of new energy, in particular to a photovoltaic development model construction method based on technology diffusion and dynamic programming. Background technique [0002] In recent years, China's solar photovoltaic power generation has developed rapidly, and it is in a priority position in the national energy strategy. In order to effectively coordinate the relationship between the scale, speed and economic development of solar photovoltaic power generation, the Chinese government has continuously issued various development plans for solar photovoltaic power generation. However, as solar photovoltaic power generation is an emerging renewable energy power generation technology, it is still undergoing technological innovation to achieve technological breakthroughs, so there is a big gap between the developed development plan and the actual situation of solar photovoltaic development in my country. Therefore, i...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/38H02J3/00G06Q30/02G06Q50/06
CPCH02J3/381H02J3/008G06Q30/0201G06Q30/0202G06Q50/06H02J2203/10H02J2203/20H02J2300/24Y04S10/50Y04S50/14Y02E10/56
Inventor 张祥成杨帆李芳许辉解普姜笑
Owner 国网青海省电力公司清洁能源发展研究院
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