Petroleum yield prediction method and device based on Stackelberg game model

Abstract

The invention discloses a petroleum yield prediction method and device based on a Stackelberg game model. The method comprises the steps of obtaining historical petroleum yield data of all main objects in a petroleum system; based on the Hubbert function, constructing a Hubbert yield prediction model of each main body object according to the historical petroleum yield data of each main body object; predicting petroleum yield data of each main body object under the resource constraint by utilizing the Hubbert yield prediction model of each main body object; and inputting the petroleum yield data of each main body object under the resource constraint into a pre-constructed Stackelberg game model, and outputting the petroleum yield data of each main body object under the game relationship. According to the invention, the petroleum yield is predicted based on the Stackelberg game model, the macroscopic game relationship of the petroleum market is considered, and the future petroleum yieldcan be predicted more accurately.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of oil exploitation, in particular to a method and device for predicting oil production based on a Stackelberg game model. Background technique [0002] This section is intended to provide a background or context to the embodiments of the invention recited in the claims. The descriptions herein are not admitted to be prior art by inclusion in this section. [0003] At present, the models for oil production prediction mainly include statistical methods, mechanism-based methods and system function simulation methods. Statistical methods are mainly based on statistical models to calculate oil production. Typical production prediction methods include Weng's model, Weibull model, HCZ prediction model, Logistic prediction model, Hubbert model, decline model and Gaussian model. As the main production forecasting model, the Hubbert model is widely used in oil production forecasting. [0004] However, the statistical method...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting oil production based on the Stackelberg game model, which is used to solve the problem that the statistically based oil production prediction method in the prior art cannot reflect the macro game relationship in the petroleum system, resulting in The technical problem of inaccurate prediction results, the method includes: obtaining the historical oil production data of each subject object in the petroleum system; based on the Hubbert function, constructing the Hubble of each subject object according to the historical oil production data of each subject object Special production forecasting model; use the Hubbert production forecasting model of each subject object to predict the oil production data of each subject object under resource constraints; input the oil production data of each subject object under resource constraints into the pre-built In the Stackelberg game model, output the oil production data of each subject under the game relationship

[0007] The embodiment of the present invention also provides an oil production prediction device based on the Stackelberg game model, which is used to solve the problem that the statistics-based oil production prediction method in the prior art cannot reflect the macroscopic game relationship in the petroleum system. Technical problems that lead to inaccurate prediction results. The device includes: a historical oil production data acquisition module, which is used to obtain historical oil production data of various oil subject objects in the petroleum system; an oil production model determination module, which is based on the Hubbert function, According to the historical oil production data of each subject object, construct the Hubbert production forecast model of each subject object; the resource-constrained oil production forecast module is used to use the Hubbert production forecast model of each subject object to predict each subject The oil production data of the object under resource constraints; the game relationship oil production prediction module is used to input the oil production data of each subject object under resource constraints into the pre-built Stackelberg game model, and output each subject The oil production data of the object under the game relationship

[0008] The embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer device to solve the technical problem that the statistics-based oil production prediction method in the prior art cannot reflect the macro game relationship in the petroleum system, resulting in inaccurate prediction results. It includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and operable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, the above oil production prediction method based on the Stackelberg game model is realized.

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