Reliability prediction method under maintenance support of manned spacecraft

Abstract

The invention relates to a reliability prediction method under maintenance support of a manned spacecraft. The reliability prediction method comprises the following steps of S1, performing scheme design on components of the manned spacecraft; s2, defining components of the manned spacecraft; s3, establishing a reliability block diagram; s4, establishing a reliability mathematical model; s5, collecting failure rate data of the manned spacecraft component; s6, performing life analysis on the manned spacecraft component, and determining a maintenance period; s7, determining the working time of the manned spacecraft component in the maintenance period; and S8, calculating and obtaing a reliability predicted value. Recovery and maintenance effects of maintenance on the reliability of the system in the long service life period are considered, and the method is effective in engineering and easy to implement.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a reliability prediction method supported by manned spacecraft maintenance. Background technique [0002] The life and reliability requirements of manned spacecraft are getting higher and higher. Space stations are typical of long-term flight manned spacecraft. With maintenance support during the year, the mission reliability is not less than 0.97. During long-term operation, various failures may occur, seriously affecting task completion and system security. On-orbit maintenance is an effective means to prevent and eliminate failures and ensure the long life and high reliability of manned spacecraft. For example, the original design life of the Mir space station is 5 years, but the actual life is extended to 15 years through on-orbit maintenance support (according to statistics, 75% of the working time of the astronauts on the station is used for on-orbit maintenance) and maintenance resource guarantee; the International Spa...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] 1. For all spacecraft models before the space station, the reliability quantitative indicators are required to be mission reliability. The supporting design unit has accumulated experience in reliability modeling, distribution and prediction, and has a working basis. If the availability is used To design indicators, a set of methods needs to be implemented, which increases the difficulty of work

[0006] 2. Availability modeling is complex and cannot be passed on step by step as a design indicator

Availability modeling needs to adopt Markov process method, the calculation is complicated, it is difficult to use it as a design index, and it is transferred from the system to the subsystem and stand-alone equipment

[0007] 3. Difficulty in availability allocation

However, many current reliability prediction methods do not take into account the impact of maintenance on spacecraft reliability, so they cannot accurately reflect the reliability level that can be achieved by the design scheme.

Images