Thunderstorm short-term and imminent forecasting method, system and terminal

Abstract

The invention provides a thunderstorm short-term and imminent forecasting method, system and terminal, and the method comprises the following steps: carrying out the preprocessing of lightning historical data, and obtaining lightning grid observation data; performing feature construction on the radar historical data to obtain three-dimensional radar feature data; performing feature construction on the satellite historical data to obtain three-dimensional satellite feature data; performing feature construction on the Grapes historical data to obtain three-dimensional Grapes feature data; constructing a thunderstorm short and imminent forecast data set based on the lightning grid observation data, the three-dimensional radar feature data, the three-dimensional satellite feature data and the three-dimensional Grapes feature data; constructing a thunderstorm short-term and imminent forecasting model; and training the thunderstorm short-term and impending forecasting model based on the thunderstorm short-term and impending forecasting data set so as to realize thunderstorm short-term and impending forecasting based on the trained thunderstorm short-term and impending forecasting model. According to the thunderstorm short-term and imminent forecasting method and system and the terminal, accurate short-term and imminent forecasting of the thunderstorm is achieved by fusing multi-source data, the timeliness is good, and the practicability is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of information early warning, in particular to a thunderstorm short-impending forecast method, system and terminal. Background technique [0002] The short-term forecast refers to the weather forecast of 0-12 hours, and the forecast object is the weather phenomenon that changes significantly within this period. Among them, 0-2h is the nowcasting, which is forecasted by 30 minutes, and 3-12h is forecasted by 3h. For aviation meteorology, it mainly includes strong convection such as thunderstorms, precipitation (rainfall / snowfall), gale and wind shear, freezing rain, sandstorms, low visibility (fog), sky cloudiness, etc. Taking thunderstorm as an example, as a typical severe convective weather, the process of its generation, development and dissipation is very sudden, with the characteristics of short life history, and its impact is short and strong. Therefore, the short-term forecast of severe conve...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0021] Most of the existing fusion forecasts are precipitation forecasts based on the fusion of radar echo extrapolation and numerical models, and there are few studies on multi-source data fusion for severe convective weather forecasts

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