Multivariable design flood estimation method suitable for region lacking data

Abstract

The invention provides a multivariable design flood estimation method suitable for a region lacking data. The multivariable design flood estimation method comprises the following steps: collecting short-series runoff observation data of a reservoir, searching and extracting a rainfall series, and reanalyzing data set meteorological data and a land water reserve series; according to short-series runoff observation data and meteorological data, establishing a hydrological model of a drainage basin and preliminarily simulating runoff; constructing a long-short-term memory neural network model, and correcting the preliminary simulation runoff by adopting the model to obtain a corrected simulation runoff series model; inputting long-series meteorological data into the hydrological model and the corrected simulation runoff system model, and simulating a long-series reservoir runoff process; based on the long-series runoff process, extracting a flood peak and the flood volume of each time period, and constructing a joint distribution function of the peak volume; and deducing flood joint design values in different joint return periods. According to the invention, irrelevance between the flood peak and the flood volume in different time periods is considered, and a reference basis is provided for deducing design flood estimation of a scarce data area.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of design flood estimation, and in particular relates to a multi-variable design flood estimation method suitable for areas lacking data. Background technique [0002] Design flood is the basic basis of flood control planning, the basic basis of water conservancy project planning, design, construction and operation management, and is also an important data for assessing flood control risks of water conservancy projects in the basin. and social development are of great significance. However, some reservoirs in my country have only a small amount of measured hydrometeorological monitoring data, so how to invert the long series of runoff processes and calculate the design flood is a major challenge for hydrologists. [0003] In recent years, satellite telemetry technology, data inversion algorithm and data assimilation technology have developed rapidly, which have the advantages of high temporal and spatial re...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, engineering measures such as dams, reservoirs, agricultural irrigation, water diversion and inter-basin water transfer often destroy the consistency of the underlying surface, resulting in large errors in the hydrological model of the basin

Existing literature fails to make full use of satellite telemetry meteorological information, and fails to consider the error caused by human activity interference on runoff simulation, and cannot solve the problem of long-series runoff simulation in areas with scarce data

At the same time, in the current engineering practice in my country, the single-variable same-frequency method is mainly used to calculate the design flood. This method assumes that the flood peak is completely related to the flood volume in different periods, which does not conform to the objective laws of flood events, and restricts the reasonable calculation of the design flood in areas where data is scarce.

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