Power grid region weather forecasting method based on dynamic downscaling

A meteorological forecast and downscaling technology, applied in forecasting, climate sustainability, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of time and space precision gap and large influence, and achieve the effect of improving forecast accuracy and forecast effect

Pending Publication Date: 2021-08-27
STATE GRID HENAN ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER SCI RES INST +2
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  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, disastrous weather has an increasing impact on the safe operation of the power grid. At present, the meteorological forecast and early warning products released by the research have a very large gap with the demand of th

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  • Power grid region weather forecasting method based on dynamic downscaling
  • Power grid region weather forecasting method based on dynamic downscaling
  • Power grid region weather forecasting method based on dynamic downscaling

Examples

Experimental program
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[0078] Example 1

[0079] Step 1: Set horizontal resolution areas, key areas and a horizontal resolution of 1km forecast at 3 days 9km;

[0080] Step 2: field production forecast forecasting system generates a horizontal resolution of UTC12 area 9km hourly basis for the next three days meteorological factors forecast results, providing hourly temperature forecast for the next three days based on region, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, barometric pressure, the results forecast precipitation and other factors;

[0081] Select the hourly observations 119 correspond to periods of national weather forecast region;

[0082] In order to predict the result of step 2, the average wind speed variable ground, relative humidity, temperature and precipitation, and continuous variables (wind speed, air temperature and relative humidity) using classical statistical methods to predict the effect of tests, including checking the bias (the BIAS) and RMS error (RMSE) analysis, wherein:

[0083...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid region weather forecasting method based on dynamic downscaling, comprising the following steps: 1, setting a region horizontal resolution P, a key region horizontal resolution Q and the number of forecasting days N, wherein, P > Q; 2, based on a forecast field generated by a forecast system, making an hour-by-hour basic ground meteorological element forecast result hour by hour for the next N days with the regional horizontal resolution P; and 3, performing downscaling forecast on the key region in a micro-scale mode by using the background forecast field of the resolution P, and dynamically integrating hour-by-hour forecast results of the key region horizontal resolution Q for the next N days. The power downscaling method and the statistical downscaling method are adopted to refine whole-region forecasting to key-region forecasting, the method is suitable for various topographic conditions, particularly, a dynamic integration scheme with the shortest rolling sample remarkably improves the forecasting effect, and the method can be effectively applied to forecasting analysis of meteorological elements of a power transmission line.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric meteorological disaster early warning, and relates to a power grid regional weather forecast method based on power downscaling. Background technique [0002] With the continuous expansion of the scale of the power grid, the influence of severe weather conditions on overhead transmission lines is becoming more and more obvious. Affected by rain, snow and freezing wind, the transmission lines in the vast area from Heilongjiang in the north to Hunan in the south have tripped, Power outage accidents such as falling poles and disconnected lines seriously threaten the safe operation of equipment and power grids. [0003] In order to improve the disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of the power grid and improve the safe and stable operation of the power grid, in recent years, the provincial power companies have actively strengthened cooperation with the meteorological department, and actively...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06Q50/06Y02A90/10
Inventor 李哲王超王津宇卢明梁允姚德贵郭志民刘善峰王磊李帅杨磊苑司坤高阳马建伟耿俊成吕卓陈岑刘莘昱张小斐刘昊杨文
Owner STATE GRID HENAN ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER SCI RES INST
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